Publications

20 Nov

Nikkei benefits from better than expected corporate results

Stronger GDP recovery (+5.2%) in Q3. Overall contraction of -5.3% in 2020. Expansionary monetary policy until 2023. Corporate earnings 30% higher than expected. Nikkei at highest level since 1991. Key Points Third Covid-19 wave hits Japan, threatening economic momentum Economic recovery turns out to be stronger than expected in Q3 Leading indicators continue to waver […]

28 Oct

Q4 Investment Strategy & Outlook 2020

Global Investment Climate – Key Points Global GDP growth to slow in Q4 Overly optimistic expectations for pre-election GDP in the US Economic slowdown in the EU Relatively solid growth outlook for Swiss GDP Everything seems hunky-dory in China UAE Investment Climate – Key Points Lower than projected economic growth forecast for the UAE The […]

15 Oct

A difficult autumn for the United Kingdom with no deal Brexit in sight

Disappointing GDP growth. Greater economic risks in Q4. The BoE is considering applying negative rates. Long rates are close to zero. Negative prospects for the pound and equities. Key Points A no deal Brexit is on the horizon, the worst-casescenario is becoming increasingly likely 1 trillion euros’ worth of trade will be subject tonew duties […]

14 Oct

Economic downturn in the EU at the end of the year

The health crisis is making a comeback in Europe. The ECB is monetising public and private debt. Capital markets are under control. The agreement of 21 July strengthens the euro. Significant downside risks for equities. Key Points Economic downturn in the European Union Germany shores up European growth EU rules on public debt will have […]

13 Oct

US presidential elections: a game changer for the markets?

Overly optimistic expectations for US GDP. Growth likely to slow in Q4. Rising budget deficit. Massive and unconditional support from the Fed. High risks for equities. Key Points Second wave of Covid-19 could slow USeconomic recovery Over-optimistic expectations for US GDP? US elections will reinforce the new fiscalparadigm Rising taxes threaten financial markets Massive, sustained […]

29 Sep

Nikkei benefits from even better expectations for 2021

Sharper contraction of GDP (-7.9%) and corporate profits (-46%) in Q2. GDP expected to recover in Q3. Profit growth of +21% in 2021. Excessive valuation of the Nikkei. Key Points The change in prime minister will have noinfluence on Japan’s economic policy Japan’s GDP contracted more sharply thanexpected in Q2 2020 The Japanese economy is […]

11 Sep

Sharp rebound in Swiss GDP already anticipated by equity markets

The economic recovery is underway. SNB staying on course. Swiss franc likely to weaken against the euro. New paradigm for interest rates. Risks return to equity markets. Key Points Swiss GDP falls by -8.2% in Q2, by -10.5% in H1 Switzerland withstands the shock of Covid-19 better than its neighbours Solid growth prospects in H2 […]

10 Jul

US corporate earnings could fall by -44% in Q2

GDP is expected to fall by -32% in Q2, will not return to 2019 levels before 2022. The Fed systematises yield curve control. End of interest rate volatility. Complacency on equities. Key Points Annualised GDP contraction of -32% in Q2? GDP contraction of -5.5% in 2020 followed by a +3.9% recovery in 2021 Sharp rise […]

01 Jul

Q3 Investment Strategy & Outlook 2020

Global Investment Climate – Key Points Pandemic no longer scares investors Central banks’ massive liquidity injections are reassuring A new paradigm is driving government indebtedness Rapid rebound in financial markets and return of a certain euphoria Disturbing dichotomy between financial markets and the real economy UAE Investment Climate – Key Points Revised GDP Projections First […]

25 Jun

European recovery plan could also bolster the euro

ECB injects EUR 1,350 billion. Banks borrow EUR 1,300 billion at negative yields. Debt pooling and monetisation are moving forward. Recovery plan favourable to the euro. Key Points ECB is on every front ECB lends banks an additional 1,300 billion at negative yields ECB underwrites the fiscal expansion of European states An 1,800 billion recovery […]