Publications

The brief stabilization in Japanese bond markets has been shattered by the yen plunging past 160 JPY/USD, forcing the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield to break technical resistance and aggressively climb above 2.5%. This shift is entirely driven by a cost-push crisis and an embedded risk premium as the market prices in an expected […]

Contrary to recessionary fears, heavy industry picked up in the spring, scoring 55.1 in April and 54.5 in May as companies built emergency safety stocks to mitigate Middle East maritime disruptions. Conversely, the services sector ground to an abrupt halt at 50.0, ending a 13-month expansion due to a massive 43-month high in fuel and […]

Japan’s economy began 2026 under a major structural transition, posting a real GDP growth of +0.5% (+2.1% annualized) for Q1. This expansion highlights a dramatic internal decoupling, as household consumption grew by +0.3% on the back of historic spring wage increases that finally pushed real wage growth back into positive territory. Conversely, business investment (Capex) […]

The Middle East conflict has overturned the 2026 bond outlook, abruptly ending the downward trend that saw 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a yearly low of 3.93% in February. As inflation expectations pivot toward a 3.5%–4% range, the 10-year yield has surged to 4.46%, with technical resistance levels suggesting a potential climb toward the 4.8%–5% […]

March data reveals a stark divergence between a resilient “Made in USA” industrial sector and a services sector buckling under energy costs. While the Composite PMI remains in expansion at 51.4, the services component is teetering on contraction as soaring gasoline prices act as a direct tax on discretionary spending. This sudden loss of industrial […]

The 43-day federal shutdown (October 1 – November 12, 2025) left a more profound mark on the economy than initial models predicted, shaving an estimated 1.15 percentage points off Q4 growth. This historic paralysis triggered a massive 16.6% contraction in federal spending and froze strategic private-sector decisions due to a total lack of statistical visibility. […]

European bond markets transitioned from a flattening yield curve to a sharp spike in yields within mere sessions. The benchmark 10-year German Bund breached the 3% psychological threshold, while the French OAT surged toward 3.8%, levels not seen in years. This mass sell-off reflects a total reconfiguration of inflation expectations, accompanied by widening spreads as […]

The Eurozone Composite PMI plummeted to 50.5 in March, signaling that private sector expansion has virtually ground to a halt. While manufacturing reached a deceptive 45-month high due to temporary German acceleration, this momentum is undermined by lengthening delivery times and bottlenecks caused by the Strait of Hormuz disruption. This sudden loss of industrial velocity […]

The Eurozone ended 2025 on a modest note, with Q4 GDP at 0.2% supported by steady private and public spending. This resilience was anchored by a robust labor market nearing full employment, which buffered household investment against trade adjustments and provided a stable, albeit low-level, foundation for the broader economy. This stability now appears increasingly […]

The current paralysis acts as a catalyst for a historic pivot toward domestic agricultural inputs. If the blockade persists through the 2026 season, the pass-through of high costs to meat, dairy, and grains will become inevitable by autumn. This crisis is accelerating a technological shift, with the green ammonia and specialized fertilizer market projected to […]