Publications

After reaching peaks of uncertainty in Q1, tensions in the Middle East began to ease in May. The 10-year German Bund, the market benchmark, eased to trade around 2.85% after hitting the 3.2% threshold. The deterioration in economic activity in the eurozone contributed to this easing. Faced with the risk of a sharp slowdown and […]

The Eurozone Composite PMI index rebounded to 52 in July and reached 53.1 in September, indicating that private sector contraction halted over the summer. An easing of tensions in the Middle East helped stem the decline in new orders and moderate upstream cost pressures. Manufacturing activity rose to 52.7 as delivery times normalized, while services […]

Eurozone GDP expanded by a stronger-than-expected +0.4% in the second quarter of 2026, beating the +0.2% consensus forecast. This recovery was anchored by a sharp +3.9% rebound in Ireland alongside strong performance in Spain (+0.7%), while Germany maintained modest growth of +0.2%. The bounce-back provided a key reprieve from earlier recession concerns, bolstered by a […]

Driven by the combined effect of the Bank of England’s continued restrictive monetary policy and persistent strength in U.S. Treasuries, the yield on the 10-year gilt rose to 5.21% in mid-September, up from 5.0% in May. Meanwhile, the 2-year gilt yield stands at 4.54%, reflecting market expectations that any significant monetary easing will be postponed […]

The latest survey data confirm a clear rebound in U.K. economic activity following the spring low point. Led by strong demand for technology and financial export services, the services PMI rose to 52.5 in August, lifting the overall composite PMI to 52.5. This composite rebound confirms a scenario of moderate expansion while ruling out a […]

The Office for National Statistics revised U.K. Q2 2026 GDP growth to a solid +0.4%, following a +0.6% expansion in Q1. Over the first half of the year, British economic growth outpaced both the Eurozone and Germany. This performance confirms that underlying private demand absorbed monetary shocks far better than early estimates suggested. The upward […]

Persistent yield differentials between Switzerland and other major currency areas will continue to play a central role in current exchange rate dynamics. As the Swiss National Bank holds key interest rates at 0%, wider yield gaps favor higher-yielding foreign currencies over domestic assets. This negative yield gap progressively reduces the relative appeal of the franc […]

Swiss exports surged +10.7% in July 2026, the sharpest monthly jump in a decade, driven by chemical and pharmaceutical demand. With imports dropping -2.8%, net trade provided a strong boost to overall GDP. This surge highlights the structural resilience of Switzerland’s pharmaceutical sector against global headwinds. A late-2025 trade agreement also offers key competitive protection […]