Publications

  Crises and uncertainty benefit Bitcoin. Supply is designed to be increasingly scarce. Bitcoin is not a currency but an asset. The third speculative bubble is growing. Will it burst in 2018? Key Points Black Friday and Cyber Monday have pushed Bitcoin to 10,000 USD 300,000 new users on the Coinbase platform just before Thanksgiving […]

  Extreme valuation of the S&P 500 (PE 22x). Risk premium once again irrational. Historic volatility at its lowest since 2007. Tax reform failure could make Wall Street plummet. Key Points Irrational exuberance or just excessive optimism in the short term? Extreme valuation of the S&P 500 in 2017 The GAFAs and Microsoft accounted for […]

  US production stabilises. Reduction in global supply. Invetories contracting. Saudi Arabia further reduces exports. Chinese imports on the rise. Key Points Positivie performance for commodities due to upswing of oil prices Brent-WTI spread at record high WTI likely to outperform in the short term US production stabilises Global supply finally declines thanks to OPEC […]

  A preliminary financial agreement is crucial. GDP is flagging. Inflation remains high. The devaluation of the pound is having a limited impact. Rate hike likely in November. Key Points A financial agreement with Europe before negotiating other aspects of Brexit Is Theresa May still in charge? The pound rises and stabilises against the major […]

  Tax reform has finally been announced. Economic growth is strengthening. Fed balance sheet normalisation begins. Rise in rates and the US dollar. High risk for equities. Key Points In the end, corporate tax will be set at 20% instead of 35% Income tax reduced; maximum rate decrease from 39.6% to 35% Donald Trump’s tax […]

  GDP up +2.5% yoy. Positive contribution of exports and consumption. Improvement in earnings growth outlook. Nikkei relatively attractive. Key Points GDP growth in Japan accelerates to +2.5% yoy Export boom continues (+18.1%) Trade balance grows to 113 billion yen The North Korean crisis fails to affect private consumption, up +0.6% Wave of positive economic […]

Eurozone and US growth is level pegging. Fundamentals justify the rise in the Euro. The gap between valuation and profits is benefiting European companies. Key Points The German elections have dampened prospects of European reconstruction The ECB is confident, but concerned by the rise in the Euro Monetary policy will remain expansionary in 2018, despite […]

Real GDP up +0.3% in Q2. The SECO and the SNB revise their growth forecasts downward. Nevertheless, the likelihood of an upturn is enhanced by the appreciation of the euro. Key Points Real GDP up +0.3% in Q2 A stronger euro promises further GDP growth Final demand bolsters GDP growth The trade balance is not […]