Negative GDP in Q2. Resilient leading indicators. The BoE fears inflation at +12% Monetary policy measured. Decreasing risks for the pound. Opportunities in bonds. Attractive relative valuations for equities. Key Points UK GDP advanced by +0.8% in Q1 The 2nd quarter could be down by -0.2 Surprising resilience of leading indicators in Q2 Unemployment rate […]
Window of Opportunity for Swiss Equities?
Domestic demand is supporting growth. Strong franc dampens inflationary momentum. Unexpected change in monetary policy by the SNB. Extreme volatility in the capital market. A window of opportunity opens for Swiss stocks. Key Points Swiss economy resists headwinds Public and private consumption remain the main drivers of the Swiss economy Leading indicators continue to plummet […]
SWISS GDP GROWTH IS ON TRACK TO REACH +3.5% IN 2021 AND +3% IN 2022
The Swiss economy is in top form. Growth figures leading to trend reversal in bond markets. The SNB is still not afraid of inflation. Significant correction underway in equity markets. Key Points Swiss GDP grows +1.8% in Q2 2021 and 7.7% year-on-year Strong comeback of domestic demand Leading indicators support a solid growth outlook Manufacturing […]
Inflation at its highest since 2008 may well cause a shock to equity markets
Equity markets are threatened by rising interest rates following the historic rebound in inflation. Trend change in the “Growth” vs “Value” match. Complicated outlook for US equities. European equities are already approaching their 2021 targets. Key Points Rising US inflation and long rates threaten equity markets Trend change in the “Growth” vs “Value” match Complicated […]
Prospects and Strategies – International Real Estate
International real estate goes toe to toe with equities. Vaccination campaigns offer new perspectives. Economic stimulus packages also benefit real estate. Key Points International real estate goes toe to toe with equities Vaccination campaigns offer new perspectives The long-term effects of the pandemic on international real estate markets should be kept in perspective Economic stimulus […]
Prospects and Strategies – International Bonds
Long-term interest rates will gradually rise across the board. Renewed attractiveness of dollar bonds. Investment strategy focused on USD, CAD, and AUD markets. Key Points Long-term interest rates will gradually rise across the board Renewed attractiveness of dollar bonds New upward trend in interest rates temporarily curbed by ECB action Trend reversal in interest rate […]
Are we heading for a new positive commodities super cycle?
An incredible 2020 for commodities. Focus on the last two super cycles for commodities. Rapid inventory reduction. Four main factors supporting increased demand. Key Points An incredible 2020 for commodities Focus on the last two commodities super cycles Are we heading for a new positive commodities super cycle? Rapid inventory reduction Four main factors supporting […]
Did the UK see the worst of it in January ?
UK GDP contracted by -2.9% in January. Exports to the EU plunged by -40.7%. Economic recovery postponed to Q2. Rising long-term interest rates and the prospect of an end to the lockdown support the pound. Key Points UK GDP shrinks by -2.9% in January Historic fall in British exports Border controls and breach of protocol […]
Japan well positioned to benefit from the recovery in world trade in 2021
Recovery will only get under way in Q2. High potential for recovery of Japanese exports. Consumption may strengthen significantly. Weakness of the yen is the only option. Upward revision of corporate profits. Key Points Double-digit growth in Q4 points to positive momentum for 2021 Increase in consumption and exports Better outlook for Q2 Leading indicators […]
Swiss GDP growth could reach +3.2% in 2021
Switzerland is emerging from the crisis in a position of strength. GDP is already benefiting from Asia’s recovery. Swiss franc depreciation is gaining momentum. SNB to post extraordinary profits in 2021. The bond market is gone. Caution on equities. Key Points Swiss GDP growth of +0.3% in Q4 2020 is higher than expected Domestic demand […]