Publications

21 Dec

How far can risk premiums go down in Europe?

EU finally to release 750 bn in recovery spending. GDP likely to contract in Q4. ECB to increase its support programmes. Fall in risk premiums reaches its limits. Risks return to the markets. Key Points End of 1st element of suspense: EU will finally beable to distribute 750 billion in Covid relief End of 2nd […]

11 Dec

More attractive risk premium for US government debt

Economic momentum slows. Weakened employment and consumption. Priority to growth. Unavoidable continuation of deficit monetisation. Rising earnings for equities. Key Points GDP momentum expected to slow sharply in Q4 Employment remains fragile and could penaliseconsumption. The four priorities of the new US president Rising government deficit and risks of structuraldepreciation of the US dollar Post-Covid […]

04 Dec

Swiss GDP surprisingly proves most resilient among developed countries

Growth above expectations. Solid domestic demand. Positive outlook for 2021. The franc still seems overvalued. A digital Swiss franc ? Consolidation of Swiss equities. Key Points Swiss GDP surged by +7.2% in Q3, almost makingup for the -8.6% drop at the end of June Domestic demand is surprisingly strong Switzerland has better been able to […]

02 Dec

A bitter New Year’s Eve for the United Kingdom

Probable contraction of -2.5% in Q4. Increasing economic risks at the beginning of 2021. Limited room for manoeuvre for the BoE. Weak pound sterling. FTSE 100 trading at 17% discount. Key Points A few more days to avoid a disastrous no-deal Brexit for the British Temporary rebound in GDP in Q3 Probable contraction of -2.5% […]

20 Nov

Nikkei benefits from better than expected corporate results

Stronger GDP recovery (+5.2%) in Q3. Overall contraction of -5.3% in 2020. Expansionary monetary policy until 2023. Corporate earnings 30% higher than expected. Nikkei at highest level since 1991. Key Points Third Covid-19 wave hits Japan, threatening economic momentum Economic recovery turns out to be stronger than expected in Q3 Leading indicators continue to waver […]

28 Oct

Q4 Investment Strategy & Outlook 2020

Global Investment Climate – Key Points Global GDP growth to slow in Q4 Overly optimistic expectations for pre-election GDP in the US Economic slowdown in the EU Relatively solid growth outlook for Swiss GDP Everything seems hunky-dory in China UAE Investment Climate – Key Points Lower than projected economic growth forecast for the UAE The […]

15 Oct

A difficult autumn for the United Kingdom with no deal Brexit in sight

Disappointing GDP growth. Greater economic risks in Q4. The BoE is considering applying negative rates. Long rates are close to zero. Negative prospects for the pound and equities. Key Points A no deal Brexit is on the horizon, the worst-casescenario is becoming increasingly likely 1 trillion euros’ worth of trade will be subject tonew duties […]

14 Oct

Economic downturn in the EU at the end of the year

The health crisis is making a comeback in Europe. The ECB is monetising public and private debt. Capital markets are under control. The agreement of 21 July strengthens the euro. Significant downside risks for equities. Key Points Economic downturn in the European Union Germany shores up European growth EU rules on public debt will have […]

13 Oct

US presidential elections: a game changer for the markets?

Overly optimistic expectations for US GDP. Growth likely to slow in Q4. Rising budget deficit. Massive and unconditional support from the Fed. High risks for equities. Key Points Second wave of Covid-19 could slow USeconomic recovery Over-optimistic expectations for US GDP? US elections will reinforce the new fiscalparadigm Rising taxes threaten financial markets Massive, sustained […]

29 Sep

Nikkei benefits from even better expectations for 2021

Sharper contraction of GDP (-7.9%) and corporate profits (-46%) in Q2. GDP expected to recover in Q3. Profit growth of +21% in 2021. Excessive valuation of the Nikkei. Key Points The change in prime minister will have noinfluence on Japan’s economic policy Japan’s GDP contracted more sharply thanexpected in Q2 2020 The Japanese economy is […]