20 Mar

BOE reassures but will not rule out recession in the UK

Likely recession in H1. BOE lowers rates and increases asset purchases. Swift rebound of long-term rates. New opportunities in real estate and equities. Key Points Boris Johnson does a U-turn and gives up on his so-called herd immunity strategy U-turn in terms of economic policy: fiscal stimulus package BOE announces exceptional measures Two consecutive key […]

18 Mar

Covid-19 tips Japan into recession before Olympic Games

GDP drop in Q4 2019. Likely recession in the current quarter. Exceptional new economic support measures. Prospects are now positive for the Nikkei. Key Points  Japan’s GDP collapsed before the coronavirus crisis Japan will almost certainly enter into recession in Q1 2020 More government economic support measures to come Loss of relevance of leading indicators  […]

17 Mar

New Crude price War: The forward structure predicts a rebound

The Covid-19 shocks the crude market. Saudi Arabia overturns the chessboard. New crude price war. American producers in turmoil. The forward structure predicts a rebound. Key Points Covid-19 causes first temporary demand shock Covid-19 and Saudi Arabia cause panic in a second step Saudi Arabia wants to take the initiative and gain market share US […]

15 Mar

What to do after three weeks of historic stock market panic?

Covid-19: a risk totally overlooked. Active management alone is able to counter a market shock. Is Covid-19 a lasting threat? Should we believe in a rapid rebound? Key Points A real threat yet totally neglected for almost two months Active and rational management alone is able to protect against a market shock The Covid-19 reminds […]

10 Jan

Financial market outlook and liquidity cycle in 2020

400 billion in cash injections in Q4. Expansion or status quo in 2020? High earnings expectations. Extreme equity valuations. More risks than opportunities. Key Points Massive and questionable cash injections in Q4 400 billion in new liquidity Why has the Fed intervened so massively? Dangerous interdependency between marketsand monetary policy Financial markets gamble on the […]

06 Jan

Changing uncertainty at the start of the new year in the US

Reduced trade tensions. Rising uncertainty relating to the elections. Resurgence of geopolitical risks. +2% GDP growth in 2020. Extreme equity valuations. Key Points Real GDP growth of approximately +2.2% in 2019 and +2% in 2020 Risk of polarisation between the Democrats’ and Republicans’ political programmes Election year could prove turbulent for investors Growth in 2020 […]

01 Jan

Q1 Investment Strategy & Outlook 2020

Global Investment Climate – Key Points US economy will remain robust Liquidity factor will lose importance International prospects are underestimated Continuing gradual adjustment of long-term rates Return of volatility in equity markets UAE Investment Climate – Key Points UAE Economy to grow at a faster pace in 2020 Sustaining growth post 2020 Dubai set to […]

13 Dec

Voters put an end to political foot-dragging in the UK

Conservatives win absolute majority. The path to Brexit is becoming clearer. Lower levels of uncertainty favourable to the pound. Long-term rates rise. BOE ready to cut rates. Key Points British voters are done with political foot-dragging on Brexit Brexit will happen In a good position to negotiate a softer Brexit Although a technical recession was […]

06 Dec

Slight recovery in the Eurozone despite weakness in Germany

GDP up +0.2% in Q3. Germany holds out on the edge of recession. ECB maintains status quo. Change of outlook for long-term rates. Valuations in Europe’s favour. Key Points Q3 slightly better than expected in the Eurozone Growth in Q3 driven by consumption, government spending and exports Leading indicators leave room for doubt Consumer confidence […]

03 Dec

Sharp economic slowdown in Japan in Q3

Anaemic GDP growth of +0.1% in Q3. Consumption slows. Exports contract. BOJ in holding pattern pending a government stimulus plan. Key Points GDP growth in Japan ground to a halt in Q3 (+0.1%) Exports fell further, but the trade balance is once again showing a surplus Industrial output dipped again at year-end after showing some […]