22 Apr

Are we heading for a new positive commodities super cycle?

An incredible 2020 for commodities. Focus on the last two super cycles for commodities. Rapid inventory reduction. Four main factors supporting increased demand. Key Points An incredible 2020 for commodities Focus on the last two commodities super cycles Are we heading for a new positive commodities super cycle? Rapid inventory reduction Four main factors supporting […]

20 Apr

Q2 Investment Strategy & Outlook 2021

Global Investment Climate – Key Points Bond markets are finally taking into account the improved growth prospects The rise in long-term interest rates is intensifying in the US but is partially sparing the euro zone Business cycles are gradually converging Global growth will be strong in 2021 and 2022 Financial assets could suffer from the […]

17 Mar

Did the UK see the worst of it in January ?

UK GDP contracted by -2.9% in January. Exports to the EU plunged by -40.7%. Economic recovery postponed to Q2. Rising long-term interest rates and the prospect of an end to the lockdown support the pound. Key Points  UK GDP shrinks by -2.9% in January Historic fall in British exports Border controls and breach of protocol […]

08 Mar

Japan well positioned to benefit from the recovery in world trade in 2021

Recovery will only get under way in Q2. High potential for recovery of Japanese exports. Consumption may strengthen significantly. Weakness of the yen is the only option. Upward revision of corporate profits. Key Points  Double-digit growth in Q4 points to positive momentum for 2021 Increase in consumption and exports Better outlook for Q2 Leading indicators […]

28 Feb

Swiss GDP growth could reach +3.2% in 2021

Switzerland is emerging from the crisis in a position of strength. GDP is already benefiting from Asia’s recovery. Swiss franc depreciation is gaining momentum. SNB to post extraordinary profits in 2021. The bond market is gone. Caution on equities. Key Points  Swiss GDP growth of +0.3% in Q4 2020 is higher than expected Domestic demand […]

08 Feb

Securitised real estate will benefit from the exceptional convergence of business cycles in 2021

Economic stimulus plans also favourable to real estate. The health crisis will not have a profound effect on yields. Real estate remains an effective hedge against a resumption of inflation. Time to invest Key Points Volatility in January did not spare international securitised real estate Alignment of regional and national economic cycles favourable to real […]

26 Jan

A bearish start to the year for the capital markets

A Probable rebound for the long-term rates in 2021. Increase in the relative attractiveness of the U.S. market. Inflationary risks underestimated. Beware of risk premiums and durations. Key Points A bearish beginning of the year for the interestrate markets under the influence of the USTreasury Unanticipated but probable rebound inlong-term rates in 2021 The rise […]

19 Jan

Q1 Investment Strategy & Outlook 2021

Global Investment Climate – Key Points Health measures necessitated by the 2nd wave threaten growth in the short term Covid-19 factor no longer influencing financial markets Reduced political risks and uncertainties New BFM paradigm supporting enthusiasm and risk-taking Central banks vaccinating markets against high valuations UAE Investment Climate – Key Points UAE economic activity is […]

21 Dec

How far can risk premiums go down in Europe?

EU finally to release 750 bn in recovery spending. GDP likely to contract in Q4. ECB to increase its support programmes. Fall in risk premiums reaches its limits. Risks return to the markets. Key Points End of 1st element of suspense: EU will finally beable to distribute 750 billion in Covid relief End of 2nd […]

11 Dec

More attractive risk premium for US government debt

Economic momentum slows. Weakened employment and consumption. Priority to growth. Unavoidable continuation of deficit monetisation. Rising earnings for equities. Key Points GDP momentum expected to slow sharply in Q4 Employment remains fragile and could penaliseconsumption. The four priorities of the new US president Rising government deficit and risks of structuraldepreciation of the US dollar Post-Covid […]