Publications

The UK economy started 2025 with a surprisingly strong performance, with its GDP growing by +0.7% in the first quarter, the best among the G7. This growth was mainly driven by the services sector, exports, and fixed investment. This performance significantly outpaced other G7 economies, including the Eurozone’s +0.3% and the US’s -0.1%. This result […]

Swiss government long-term yields are once again approaching zero. Our previous expectation for a policy rate cut to 0.25% has been surpassed, with a potential cut to 0% now being considered by the SNB for its upcoming meeting, which will push long-term yields lower. This move is a clear signal from the central bank’s concern […]

Leading indicators for the Swiss economy remain mixed. The manufacturing sector continues to struggle, with its PMI dropping to a 5-year low, while the services sector shows resilience. Consumer confidence has improved slightly but remains pessimistic, and retail sales are subdued. Key Points A surprisingly robust first quarter for the GDP High risks of growth […]

Switzerland’s economy started 2025 with a surprisingly strong first quarter, with real GDP accelerating to a robust +0.8% quarterly growth. This performance, driven predominantly by exports, surpassed analysts’ expectations and represented the fastest economic expansion since Q2 2024. Key Points A surprisingly robust first quarter for the GDP High risks of growth slowing in Q2 […]

Japanese government bond yields are stabilizing after a significant upward trend that saw them approach 1.6% in March 2025. This movement was initiated by the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decision in March 2024 to end its yield curve control policy, allowing long-term yields to be determined more freely by market forces. Key Points Slowdown in […]

Leading indicators for the Japanese economy in Q2 2025 present a mixed and uneven picture, suggesting a moderate and uneven growth trajectory. The services sector is showing signs of resilience but with a notable slowdown in its expansion, while the manufacturing sector remains in contraction for the eleventh consecutive month. The composite PMI for May […]

Japan’s GDP experienced an unexpected contraction in Q1 2025, the first decline in a year, which was more severe than anticipated. This downturn, with an annualized contraction of -0.7%, was primarily driven by stagnant private consumption and a significant negative contribution from net exports, highlighting the underlying fragility of the economy. Key Points Slowdown in […]

While inflationary risks are still present, the U.S. bond market is increasingly benefiting from the heightened risk of an economic slowdown. We believe a more rapid downward impact on long-term rates will materialize in response to economic data showing a clear weakening of consumption and investment. Since the peak of concern around the presidential inauguration, […]

Economic activity indicators from the New York and Richmond Feds have fallen to their lowest levels since early 2021. The composite PMI remains at a growth threshold of 53.5, but manufacturing has dipped below 50, and political uncertainty is clearly affecting industrial and consumer sentiment. Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest point since January […]

The U.S. economy, while posting a 2.4% annualized increase in Q4 2024 GDP, has since shown signs of a significant slowdown. This decline is reflected in the Citi Economic Surprise Indicator, which has been signaling a series of disappointments since mid-November. High-frequency data from the Atlanta and Philadelphia Feds also point to a clear reversal […]