Publications

The flash GDP estimate published by SECO on November 17th reported an unexpected contraction of -0.5% for Q3 2025. This result abruptly deviated from the market consensus for a soft landing, confirming the more cautious forecasts held by independent analysts. This figure signals a decisive break from the positive momentum observed earlier in the year […]

The primary threat is not that Artificial Intelligence itself is a temporary fad, but rather that current stock market valuations are aggressively pricing in 10 years of projected profits that have yet to materialize. The market has entered a critical “Show Me the Money” phase, demanding tangible evidence of revenue generation, particularly from Layer 3 […]

The battle for AI supremacy is currently fought among five distinct strategic forces. OpenAI/Microsoft serves as the Catalyst and innovator, dominating API adoption with models like GPT-4o. Google is the Awakened Giant, leveraging its Gemini family and unmatched ecosystem (Search, Android) to compete on performance. Meta is the Open-Source Champion, offering its Llama models freely—a […]

Artificial Intelligence has moved from academic obscurity to a central corporate and economic strategic driver in just five years, catalyzed by the breakthrough of generative AI. This period was defined not by slow, linear evolution, but by a frantic, exponential race for performance and immediate public access. The market is shifting toward “The Great Sorting” […]

The current, near-unanimous bullish consensus, particularly following the exceptional price surges in gold and silver, introduces a significant risk of market complacency. While core fundamentals (de-dollarization, central bank buying) remain solid, it is essential to assess the fair theoretical valuation and identify scenarios that could swiftly invalidate the prevailing narrative and trigger a substantial short-term […]

The precious metals market has achieved a spectacular performance in 2024 and 2025, with gold soaring to nearly $3,900 per ounce and silver exceeding $48 per ounce, outperforming all consensus targets. Prices have quickly materialized, exceeding recent bold consensus targets set by leading strategists, yet this shared optimism historically marks a period of heightened downside […]

This stagflationary cocktail (stubborn core inflation, visible rate pass-through, and early labor market weakness) is immediately exacerbated by the U.S. government shutdown, which suspends the publication of crucial economic statistics and injects pervasive uncertainty into investment decisions. While recession risks argue for lower yields, the structural supply factors combined with persistent inflation pressures mean long-term […]

Leading indicators confirm an accelerated deceleration in activity. The Richmond Manufacturing Index fell steeply to -17 in September, indicating significant contraction in the industrial base. Concurrently, the ISM Manufacturing Index remains below 50 (at 49.1), validating reduced future output expectations and persistent shrinkage. This trend signals that external uncertainties are now converting into measurable reductions […]

According to the final estimate published by the BEA, US gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a strong annualized rate of +3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, marking a significant rebound after the -0.6% contraction observed in the first quarter. However, a detailed analysis reveals that this performance was primarily driven by volatile and […]

The UK bond market, or Gilts, continues to present a compelling value proposition, particularly for investors seeking stable income in an environment of prolonged high interest rates. The yield on the 10-year government bond is trading around 4.6%, which, with a current inflation rate of 3.8%, provides a positive real yield of approximately 80 basis […]