Probable contraction of -2.5% in Q4. Increasing economic risks at the beginning of 2021. Limited room for manoeuvre for the BoE. Weak pound sterling. FTSE 100 trading at 17% discount. Key Points A few more days to avoid a disastrous no-deal Brexit for the British Temporary rebound in GDP in Q3 Probable contraction of -2.5% […]
Stronger GDP recovery (+5.2%) in Q3. Overall contraction of -5.3% in 2020. Expansionary monetary policy until 2023. Corporate earnings 30% higher than expected. Nikkei at highest level since 1991. Key Points Third Covid-19 wave hits Japan, threatening economic momentum Economic recovery turns out to be stronger than expected in Q3 Leading indicators continue to waver […]
Global Investment Climate – Key Points Investors and the general population were dangerously cavalier over the summer Second wave of Covid-19 now on the horizon Confidence remains inordinately high in financial markets Exiting the economic crisis could be slower than expected Political uncertainty in the US has not been factored in UAE Investment Climate – […]
Disappointing GDP growth. Greater economic risks in Q4. The BoE is considering applying negative rates. Long rates are close to zero. Negative prospects for the pound and equities. Key Points A no deal Brexit is on the horizon, the worst-casescenario is becoming increasingly likely 1 trillion euros’ worth of trade will be subject tonew duties […]
The health crisis is making a comeback in Europe. The ECB is monetising public and private debt. Capital markets are under control. The agreement of 21 July strengthens the euro. Significant downside risks for equities. Key Points Economic downturn in the European Union Germany shores up European growth EU rules on public debt will have […]
Overly optimistic expectations for US GDP. Growth likely to slow in Q4. Rising budget deficit. Massive and unconditional support from the Fed. High risks for equities. Key Points Second wave of Covid-19 could slow USeconomic recovery Over-optimistic expectations for US GDP? US elections will reinforce the new fiscalparadigm Rising taxes threaten financial markets Massive, sustained […]
Sharper contraction of GDP (-7.9%) and corporate profits (-46%) in Q2. GDP expected to recover in Q3. Profit growth of +21% in 2021. Excessive valuation of the Nikkei. Key Points The change in prime minister will have noinfluence on Japan’s economic policy Japan’s GDP contracted more sharply thanexpected in Q2 2020 The Japanese economy is […]
The economic recovery is underway. SNB staying on course. Swiss franc likely to weaken against the euro. New paradigm for interest rates. Risks return to equity markets. Key Points Swiss GDP falls by -8.2% in Q2, by -10.5% in H1 Switzerland withstands the shock of Covid-19 better than its neighbours Solid growth prospects in H2 […]
GDP is expected to fall by -32% in Q2, will not return to 2019 levels before 2022. The Fed systematises yield curve control. End of interest rate volatility. Complacency on equities. Key Points Annualised GDP contraction of -32% in Q2? GDP contraction of -5.5% in 2020 followed by a +3.9% recovery in 2021 Sharp rise […]
Global Investment Climate – Key Points Pandemic no longer scares investors Central banks’ massive liquidity injections are reassuring A new paradigm is driving government indebtedness Rapid rebound in financial markets and return of a certain euphoria Disturbing dichotomy between financial markets and the real economy UAE Investment Climate – Key Points Revised GDP Projections First […]