Publications

The 0.1% uptick in fourth-quarter GDP was a critical development that successfully prevented a technical recession following the 0.4% contraction in the previous period. This stabilization allowed the full-year 2025 growth to reach 0.7%, a figure that notably outperformed the initial consensus forecast of 0.5%, confirming that the Swiss economy retained its footing despite a […]

The Japanese fixed-income market is under intense pressure, with 10-year JGB yields stabilizing near 2.1% after significant volatility. This calm is fragile, as yields are now deeply correlated with inflationary fears triggered by the Middle East conflict. We anticipate yields will resume an upward trend toward 2% and beyond, as current coupons fail to offset […]

Leading indicators through February 2026 signaled a strengthening recovery, with manufacturing at 53 and services at 53.8. While industrial production in January supported this resilient outlook, these surveys predated the Middle East escalation. The significant uncertainties from the current energy shock are not yet reflected and will likely weigh heavily on the March reporting cycle. […]

The Japanese economy concluded 2025 in a precarious balance, narrowly avoiding a technical recession. February 2026 data confirms a marginal GDP rebound of +0.1%, reversing the previous quarter’s -0.4% contraction. Despite this return to growth, the recovery remains fragile and uneven, suppressed by persistent domestic inflation and external trade barriers that have significantly hindered broader […]

The US bond market has entered a phase of preventive adjustment, with 10-year yields stabilizing near 4.10%. While the real yield of 140 basis points remains attractive, capital gains must contend with a projected $1.8 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2025. This massive supply imposes a significant term premium that leaves the market structurally vulnerable […]

The latest leading indicators highlight a persistent two-speed economy. The ISM manufacturing index slipped to 48.2 in November, with new orders falling to 47.4, signaling an accelerating deterioration in industrial demand. While the services index showed resilience at 52.6, industrial employment hit yearly lows as factories reduced headcount to protect margins. This divide confirms that […]

The US economy decelerated in Q3, with annualized growth expected between +1.5% and +2.0% following Q2’s robust +3.8%. A 43-day federal shutdown significantly disrupted this trajectory, reducing quarterly growth by an estimated 1.2 percentage points according to the CBO. This slowdown reflects a cooling in government spending and a normalization of activity after the artificial […]

The ECB’s shift toward a status quo policy has fundamentally altered the interest rate landscape, rendering previous expectations of yield easing obsolete. Sovereign yields have stabilized, with German Bunds anchoring between 2.6% and 2.8% and Italian BTPs between 3.4% and 3.6%. For investors, this marks a transition to a neutral outlook where performance depends almost […]

As 2026 approaches, leading indicators suggest a gradual but sluggish recovery. While recession risks have likely been averted, there is no evidence of a clear acceleration. Economic signals remain “orange,” reflecting a persistent sectoral dichotomy where resilient services prevent contraction but lack the industrial support needed for a robust expansion. Key Points Resilience in Q3 […]

The Eurozone’s recovery momentum remains intact despite persistent political uncertainty and shifting industrial demand. Third-quarter GDP was confirmed at +0.3%, with an annual growth rate of +1.4%, slightly exceeding consensus expectations. This resilience is primarily anchored by a robust labor market that sustains household and business spending, alongside more competitive financing conditions as interest rates […]