Global growth speeds up. Rent and prices rise. Rates no longer represent a threat. Favourable risk premium. The Eurozone and Asia outperform. Key Points Upward real estate trend continues in 2017 and 2018 Global growth picks up to +4% Interest rates still do not constitute a threat in 2018 Inflation will keep real-terms rates historically […]
Publications
USA : End of PE growth will weigh on S&P 500
Difficult to sustain US growth exceeding +3%. Pressures on corporate margins. Flattening of the yield curve. End of PE expansion. Caution on the S&P 500. Key Points Difficult to sustain US growth exceeding +3% Upturn in inflation could be the surprise of the year Flattening of the yield curve Rise of the dollar after three […]
Q1 Investment Strategy & Outlook
Investment Climate – Key Points Good international macro-economic prospects in 2018 Upward cycle on global rates and inflation likely to gain momentum High valuations and low risk premia reduce the appeal of risky assets Bitcoin’s spectacular rise demonstrates the growing, and worrying, speculative euphoria Financial markets could finally feel the pinch of long rate increases […]
The Eurozone economy is gaining power and asserting itself
Eurozone growth is stepping up. The Euro has stabilised temporarily. A rise in long-term rates is on the cards for 2018. European assets will outperform in 2018. Key Points The ECB seems particularly optimistic and is sticking to its monetary policy Growth forecasts have increased to +2.3% (2018) Inflation will remain modest in 2018 (+1.4%) […]
The UK to pay 50 billion, but the hardest part has yet to come
Brexit negotiations resuming. GDP holding up (+0.4%). The BOE to keep rates unchanged for a time. Inevitable increase in long-term rates. Lethargic equities market. Key Points GDP up +0.4%, or +1.5% yoy Finally, sufficient progress to move on to the second phase of the negotiations Is the UK giving up? The hardest is yet to […]
The Nikkei hit 23,000, time to take profits
The Japanese economy still has momentum. Exports are still the main driver of growth. Consumer spending remains tentative. The Nikkei may already be reflecting earnings growth. Key Points GDP rose a further +0.6% in Q4 (+2.5% yoy) Longest economic expansion phase in Japan since the mid-90s Exports continue to drive growth, rising +14.1% yoy […]
Swiss GDP expected to accelerate to +1.8%
Manufacturing sector boom. Exports and consumption likely to recover. The Swiss franc will continue to be weak. More than 25 billion in profit for the SNB in 2017. Key Points GDP rose +0.6% in the 3rd quarter, and +1.2% yoy Strong prospects for the last quarter GDP growth for 2017 estimated at +1.5% Favourable […]
Bitcoin: flash crash and bursting bubble in 2018?
Bitcoin will not become a currency. Central banks hostile to private cryptocurrencies. Blockchain technology. Stricter regulatory framework. Bubble to burst in 2018? Key Points Bitcoin is not and will not become a legal currency in its current form Central banks hostile to private cryptocurrencies – overview of current views Stricter regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies […]
Bitcoin: lack of an objective value is fuelling speculation
Crises and uncertainty benefit Bitcoin. Supply is designed to be increasingly scarce. Bitcoin is not a currency but an asset. The third speculative bubble is growing. Will it burst in 2018? Key Points Black Friday and Cyber Monday have pushed Bitcoin to 10,000 USD 300,000 new users on the Coinbase platform just before Thanksgiving […]
Irrational exuberance or just excessive optimism?
Extreme valuation of the S&P 500 (PE 22x). Risk premium once again irrational. Historic volatility at its lowest since 2007. Tax reform failure could make Wall Street plummet. Key Points Irrational exuberance or just excessive optimism in the short term? Extreme valuation of the S&P 500 in 2017 The GAFAs and Microsoft accounted for […]