Higher expected inflation in the USA. Warning on the interest rate markets. The European cycle is still hesitating. Confederation yields finally settle above zero. Key Points US Treasury long rates above 3% Gradual rise in expected inflation Reversal of he long-term rate cycle in the euro area British long-term rate at 2% Still no prospect […]
The risk of a “trade war” is overstated. A rise in customs duties will not reduce demand. Limited production, robust demand, falling inventories. Key Points Industrial metals slide -7% in the 1st quarter, with only nickel playing its hand well Risks of a trade war are sparking widespread profit-taking Ongoing tensions, China will call on […]
Global Investment Climate – Key Points Slight economic dip, but excellent prospects for 2018 Renewed volatility forecast for financial markets Interest rates, inflation and the “trade war” put pressure on prices High equity valuations have now corrected More attractive new investment opportunities UAE Investment Climate – Key Points Stronger than expected GDP growth estimate in […]
Sustained growth in the Eurozone. Insufficient inflation. Risks of a strong Euro. Rise in long rates. Opportunities for Eurozone equities. Low PE and high yield. Key Points The end of quantitative easing heralds upcoming key rate normalisation The ECB will wait until inflation heads above 2% before changing its interest rates The risks of a […]
Is growth already slowing? Gradual rise in expected inflation. Risk of a trade war. Margins, profits and multipliers contract. Caution on the S&P 500. Key Points The Fed has announced two further rate rises in 2018, and likely three in 2019 Key rates at 2.875% in 2019 Is US growth already slowing? GDP forecast to […]
GDP is flagging. Twelve months to reach an agreement on Brexit terms. The pound remains stable and monetary policy unchanged. Long rates rise. Caution advised on equities. Key Points Economic activity flags in Q4 (+0.4%), 2018 expectations at +1.5% Agreement on post-Brexit transition period offers relief given tense context Forestalling failure in 12 months Cost […]
It is essential that the yen weaken. Consumption and leading indicators are wavering. Exports and corporate earnings are faltering. Going long the Nikkei is premature. Key Points The strong yen is threatening Japanese growth Risk of economic slowdown in Q1 2018 The export cycle has already decelerated Corporate earnings growth is faltering Private consumption trends […]
The Swiss franc’s weak spell is not over. The bond bubble is deflating. Tensions on the interest rate curve. Corrections to risky assets could represent an opportunity. Key Points The forecast acceleration of Swiss GDP in the second half of the year will continue in 2018 +2.2% GDP growth in 2018 Leading indicators are looking […]
Dollar increasingly likely to bounce back. Waning influence of European fundamentals on the euro. Brexit to weigh on the pound again. Beware of the overly strong yen. Further adjustment of the franc. Key Points The dollar is likely to strengthen after three years of consolidation and a 50% correction following the 2011-2016 bull market Speculative […]
The consensus is still sceptical regarding the inflation recovery. The United States could surprise us in 2018. Correlation on rate markets. Be careful of the European market. Rate rise in Switzerland. Key Points Upturn in inflation could be the surprise of the year Rate hikes and flattening yield curve A rise in long-term rates is […]