<h1 class="entry-title">Category: Weekly Analysis</h1>
05 Dec

Swiss GDP expected to accelerate to +1.8%

  Manufacturing sector boom. Exports and consumption likely to recover. The Swiss franc will continue to be weak. More than 25 billion in profit for the SNB in 2017. Key Points GDP rose +0.6% in the 3rd quarter, and +1.2% yoy Strong prospects for the last quarter GDP growth for 2017 estimated at +1.5% Favourable […]

30 Nov

Bitcoin: flash crash and bursting bubble in 2018?

  Bitcoin will not become a currency. Central banks hostile to private cryptocurrencies. Blockchain technology. Stricter regulatory framework. Bubble to burst in 2018? Key Points Bitcoin is not and will not become a legal currency in its current form Central banks hostile to private cryptocurrencies – overview of current views Stricter regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies […]

29 Nov

Bitcoin: lack of an objective value is fuelling speculation

  Crises and uncertainty benefit Bitcoin. Supply is designed to be increasingly scarce. Bitcoin is not a currency but an asset. The third speculative bubble is growing. Will it burst in 2018? Key Points Black Friday and Cyber Monday have pushed Bitcoin to 10,000 USD 300,000 new users on the Coinbase platform just before Thanksgiving […]

09 Nov

Irrational exuberance or just excessive optimism?

  Extreme valuation of the S&P 500 (PE 22x). Risk premium once again irrational. Historic volatility at its lowest since 2007. Tax reform failure could make Wall Street plummet. Key Points Irrational exuberance or just excessive optimism in the short term? Extreme valuation of the S&P 500 in 2017 The GAFAs and Microsoft accounted for […]

11 Oct

As oil market rebalances, crude prices could reach $60

  US production stabilises. Reduction in global supply. Invetories contracting. Saudi Arabia further reduces exports. Chinese imports on the rise. Key Points Positivie performance for commodities due to upswing of oil prices Brent-WTI spread at record high WTI likely to outperform in the short term US production stabilises Global supply finally declines thanks to OPEC […]

04 Oct

Negotiations between the UK and the EU have stalled

  A preliminary financial agreement is crucial. GDP is flagging. Inflation remains high. The devaluation of the pound is having a limited impact. Rate hike likely in November. Key Points A financial agreement with Europe before negotiating other aspects of Brexit Is Theresa May still in charge? The pound rises and stabilises against the major […]

30 Sep

Tactical dissolution in Japan, 180-degree turn for Shinzo Abe

  GDP up +2.5% yoy. Positive contribution of exports and consumption. Improvement in earnings growth outlook. Nikkei relatively attractive. Key Points GDP growth in Japan accelerates to +2.5% yoy Export boom continues (+18.1%) Trade balance grows to 113 billion yen The North Korean crisis fails to affect private consumption, up +0.6% Wave of positive economic […]

29 Sep

European trend picks up the pace in the second half of the year

Eurozone and US growth is level pegging. Fundamentals justify the rise in the Euro. The gap between valuation and profits is benefiting European companies. Key Points The German elections have dampened prospects of European reconstruction The ECB is confident, but concerned by the rise in the Euro Monetary policy will remain expansionary in 2018, despite […]

21 Sep

Investment Process

Real GDP up +0.3% in Q2. The SECO and the SNB revise their growth forecasts downward. Nevertheless, the likelihood of an upturn is enhanced by the appreciation of the euro. Key Points Real GDP up +0.3% in Q2 A stronger euro promises further GDP growth Final demand bolsters GDP growth The trade balance is not […]