Publications

The formal signing of the U.S.-Iran peace memorandum has reversed defensive capital flows, leaving the Swiss franc weaker than its pre-conflict benchmarks. This de-escalation has dried up safe-haven demand as regional shipping bottlenecks dissolve. SNB President Martin Schlegel signaled that a moderate inflation rebound to +0.6% is entirely acceptable within their 0% to 2% target […]

The ongoing oil shock has pinned real GDP growth forecasts at a stagnant +0.2% through Q2 and Q3. Because Switzerland depends heavily on neighbors like Germany, which are hitting energy import walls, external demand for capital goods is cooling rapidly. While pharmaceuticals hold firm, cyclical segments like watchmaking and mechanical engineering (MEM) face drying up […]

The Swiss economy started 2026 on surprisingly firm footing, expanding by +0.4% in real GDP terms and outperforming initial stagnation fears. This growth was entirely powered by a striking +1.5% resurgence in the broader manufacturing sector, which was heavily anchored by a +4.6% production surge in machinery, electronics, and watchmaking. Exporters capitalized aggressively on the […]

The UK bond market came under severe pressure as consumer inflation expectations surged to +4%, forcing the 10-year Gilt yield to climb and stabilize around 5.0%. Simultaneously, the policy-sensitive 2-year Gilt yield reached 4.4% as investors priced in an aggressive “higher for longer” Bank of England stance and heavy sovereign debt issuance. This rapid rise […]

The latest PMI surveys confirm that UK business activity has stalled as the compiled leading indicators slide toward contraction. The services PMI plummeted to 49.3, a near-reversal of early-year resilience, driven down by rising labor costs and a freeze on hiring following increased employer tax contributions. Paradoxically, the manufacturing PMI surprised with a rise to […]

Official figures indicate that the UK economy started 2026 with an unexpectedly robust real GDP expansion of +0.6%, driven by consumer spending and services. However, these surprisingly strong results have been met with deep skepticism from private forecasters and Bank of England monetary policymakers. Experts suggest the statistical agency failed to properly account for shifting […]

The brief stabilization in Japanese bond markets has been shattered by the yen plunging past 160 JPY/USD, forcing the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield to break technical resistance and aggressively climb above 2.5%. This shift is entirely driven by a cost-push crisis and an embedded risk premium as the market prices in an expected […]

Contrary to recessionary fears, heavy industry picked up in the spring, scoring 55.1 in April and 54.5 in May as companies built emergency safety stocks to mitigate Middle East maritime disruptions. Conversely, the services sector ground to an abrupt halt at 50.0, ending a 13-month expansion due to a massive 43-month high in fuel and […]

Japan’s economy began 2026 under a major structural transition, posting a real GDP growth of +0.5% (+2.1% annualized) for Q1. This expansion highlights a dramatic internal decoupling, as household consumption grew by +0.3% on the back of historic spring wage increases that finally pushed real wage growth back into positive territory. Conversely, business investment (Capex) […]

The Middle East conflict has overturned the 2026 bond outlook, abruptly ending the downward trend that saw 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a yearly low of 3.93% in February. As inflation expectations pivot toward a 3.5%–4% range, the 10-year yield has surged to 4.46%, with technical resistance levels suggesting a potential climb toward the 4.8%–5% […]