WILL THE FRANC FALL THIS SUMMER? 2/3

The ongoing oil shock has pinned real GDP growth forecasts at a stagnant +0.2% through Q2 and Q3. Because Switzerland depends heavily on neighbors like Germany, which are hitting energy import walls, external demand for capital goods is cooling rapidly. While pharmaceuticals hold firm, cyclical segments like watchmaking and mechanical engineering (MEM) face drying up order books. This external stagnation is compounded by a local construction sector burdened by rising financing costs.