IS THE BOJ’S SHIFT ENOUGH TO BOOST THE YEN? 2/3

03 Jun

IS THE BOJ’S SHIFT ENOUGH TO BOOST THE YEN? 2/3

Contrary to recessionary fears, heavy industry picked up in the spring, scoring 55.1 in April and 54.5 in May as companies built emergency safety stocks to mitigate Middle East maritime disruptions. Conversely, the services sector ground to an abrupt halt at 50.0, ending a 13-month expansion due to a massive 43-month high in fuel and energy operating costs. To preserve margins, service providers raised selling prices at a near-record pace, severely dampening local consumer demand and creating a highly atypical growth profile for Q2 and Q3.

Key Points

  • Economic momentum strengthens in Q1
  • Uncertain Q2 amid energy shock and wage surge
  • Mixed indicators at the heart of tensions in Q2 and Q3
  • Household confidence dampened by inflation
  • Return of inflationary pressures
  • The BoJ faces the yen’s 160 JPY/USD barrier
  • The yield curve is under pressure from forced monetary tightening
  • A 0.25% rate hike won’t be enough to boost the yen
  • The BoJ’s monetary pivot will weigh on the Nikkei