Global Investment Climate – Key Points Financial markets have finally given in to panic The yield curve has flattened, but not inverted The Fed is aware of this, and will adopt flexible policy Attractive valuations and new investment opportunities Risks remain, but opportunities carry the day UAE Investment Climate – Key Points UAE Economic Highlights […]
Worrisome decline in GDP growth (+0.1%). Theresa May has no plan B. Increasing likelihood of a referendum. Intolerable costs of a “no deal”. Avoid equities and bonds. Key Points Theresa May will play her last card in January Why not consider a plan B? New referendum to break the deadlock Only 34% of the British […]
Yield curve inversion still synonymous with recession? Flattening versus inversion. Current situation and outlook. The Fed is not dogmatic. Unfounded fears. Key Points Markets spooked in December by the risk of a yield curve inversion Risk-off mode prevails everywhere What yield curve inversion are we talking about exactly? Yield curve flattening rather than inverting? Is […]
Sharpest contraction of GDP since 2014. Economic rally in Q4. Stabilisation of the yen. Leading indicators weighed down by uncertainty. Inflation reaches +1.4%. Nikkei on the upswing. Key Points Unexpected growth shock in Q3; Japanese GDP dropped by -0.6%, or -2.5% yoy Exports pick up in Q4 Trade balance turned negative Imports jumped by +19.9% […]
GDP contracts by -0.2% in Q3. Swiss growth remains dependent on German economy. Normal yield curve. Stabilisation of the franc. Positive outlook on equities. Key Points Euphoria gives way to bewilderment Downward revision of the growth outlook for Swiss GDP Surprise collapse of economic momentum in Q3 Swiss economy impacted by trade tensions between Beijing […]
Slowdown in growth. Ambiguous leading indicators. End of quantitative easing. Paradigm shift with regard to long-term rates. Attractive European equity risk premium. Key Points Slower GDP growth in Q2 (+0.4%), +2.1% yoy GDP growth hampered by decline in foreign trade Trade surplus down 45% in July Leading indicators losing momentum German economy is resilient, but […]
Exceptional GDP growth of +4.2% in Q2. Inevitable deceleration in 2019. Risk centred on tariffs. Long-term rate increase. Keep an eye on profits. Caution with regard to the S&P 500. Key Points Exceptional GDP growth of +4.2% in Q2 Eighth rate hike by the Fed, moving towards the 3.1% fed funds target for 2019 Fed […]
Global Investment Climate – Key Points Economic growth more tentative in 2019 Rising risks related to monetary policies and tightening liquidity Caution with regard to profits and PE ratios in 2019 Financial outlook more uncertain in 2019 Risks are multiplying and uncertainty is on the rise UAE Investment Climate – Key Points U.AE Cabinet Approves […]
Higher GDP growth in Q2 (+0.4%). Unexpected upswing in inflation. Pound hostage to the political situation. Steepening yield curve. No Brexit solution. Key Points Theresa May further weakened by the EU’s rejection of the Chequers plan The option of a new referendum is making headway as a means of breaking the deadlock A majority of […]
Highest rate of GDP growth since 2016. Expected depreciation of the yen is the determining factor. Leading indicators still uncertain. Rising inflation. Nikkei achieves 24,000 target. Key Points Unexpected and welcome surge in Japanese GDP (+0.7%) after a weak Q1 (-0.2%) Highest annualised rate of GDP growth since 2016 (+3%) Pace of growth to remain […]