GDP growth stabilises at +2% yoy. Cautious consumers. Manufacturing under pressure. BOJ may cut rates to -0.3%. Nikkei impacted by trade tensions. Key Points More positive surprises in Q1 with +0.5% GDP growth Japanese growth stabilises at +2% yoy, surprising forecasters Less impressive performance than it might seem Consumers remain worried Leading indicators still weighed […]
Publications
Is the current euphoria in the Swiss equity market sustainable?
Sharp upturn in GDP growth. Solid outlook for 2019. Interest rate trends still atypical. Caution with regard to euphoria in the equity market. Key Points Sharp increase in GDP in Q1 (+0.6%, +1.7% yoy) We maintain a growth outlook of +1.5% for 2019 Domestic and foreign demand together are boosting economic momentum in Switzerland Outlook […]
Long-term rates do not react to the +3.2% increase in US GDP
Excessively pessimistic rate markets. Global growth remains solid. Rising inflation and long-term rates. Avoid the European market. Overweight the US market. Key Points Long-term rates have not yet reacted to the +3.2% increase in US GDP in Q1 Rising inflation and long-term rates Fed will leave rates unchanged in 2019 ECB will remain accommodative Yields […]
International securitized real estate remains an attractive opportunity
More moderate increase in direct real estate prices. Economic growth boosts real estate investments. Interest rates not threatening valuations yet. Stay invested. Key Points Exceptional 1st quarter for international securitised real estate Logical loss of momentum in April The decline in interest rates supported the recovery of prices Risk premiums are still favorable More moderate […]
Q2 Investment Strategy & Outlook 2019
Global Investment Climate – Key Points From panic to euphoria within a quarter Rate markets do not believe in an economic upturn Central banks yield to pressure Loss of momentum and profit taking Leading indicators soon to turn positive? UAE Investment Climate – Key Points Fiscal stimulus focused on infrastructure ahead of Expo 2020 Better […]
Germany hampers European growth and confidence
Positive surprise with Japanese GDP up +0.5% in Q4
Economic upturn in Q4. Necessary depreciation of the yen. Trade balance back in surplus. Leading indicators under pressure. BOJ remains cautious. Rising Nikkei. Key Points Positive surprise with uptick in Japanese GDP in Q4 (+0.5% and +1.9% annualised) Trade surplus back on the rise (339 billion) Increase in wages not sufficient to boost consumption Leading […]
Has the year-end panic already given way to euphoria?
GDP growth resumes at modest pace in Q4 (+0.2%). Interest rate trends once again atypical. New records for Swiss equities and securitised real estate. Key Points Growth resumes in Q4 2018 Swiss GDP expansion of +0.2% and +2.5% (yoy) The SECO reduced its forecast for 2019 to +1.1% The manufacturing sector is the main driver […]
Is a recession looming in Germany and the Eurozone?
Contraction over the last quarter in Germany? Leading indicators rather bleak. ECB remains confident. Policy rates unchanged. New opportunities in equities. Key Points GDP growth down -0.2% in Q3 German industrial output drops -1.9% Slowdown in Europe is intensifying Five largest EU economies are weakening Leading indicators not optimistic Confidence gives way to concern Euro […]
Robust job market and economic cycle in the US
Fed stays the course. Record job creation and wage increases. Long-term interest rates no longer contracting. Equity markets on the upswing. Caution on earnings expectations. Key Points Federal Reserve stays the course in spite of market jitters 0.25% rate hike to 2.5% Fed marginally reduces its growth outlook for 2019 to +2.5% Job market will […]