Publications

09 Nov

Irrational exuberance or just excessive optimism?

  Extreme valuation of the S&P 500 (PE 22x). Risk premium once again irrational. Historic volatility at its lowest since 2007. Tax reform failure could make Wall Street plummet. Key Points Irrational exuberance or just excessive optimism in the short term? Extreme valuation of the S&P 500 in 2017 The GAFAs and Microsoft accounted for […]

07 Nov

Q4 Investment Strategy & Outlook

Investment Climate – Key Points The global economic situation has improved, and prospects are good for 2018 Significant change in sentiment toward the Euro-zone and the single currency The recovery of the upward cycle on long rates is now more robust in the United States Weakening of the Swiss Franc is still on the cards […]

11 Oct

As oil market rebalances, crude prices could reach $60

  US production stabilises. Reduction in global supply. Invetories contracting. Saudi Arabia further reduces exports. Chinese imports on the rise. Key Points Positivie performance for commodities due to upswing of oil prices Brent-WTI spread at record high WTI likely to outperform in the short term US production stabilises Global supply finally declines thanks to OPEC […]

04 Oct

Negotiations between the UK and the EU have stalled

  A preliminary financial agreement is crucial. GDP is flagging. Inflation remains high. The devaluation of the pound is having a limited impact. Rate hike likely in November. Key Points A financial agreement with Europe before negotiating other aspects of Brexit Is Theresa May still in charge? The pound rises and stabilises against the major […]

30 Sep

Tactical dissolution in Japan, 180-degree turn for Shinzo Abe

  GDP up +2.5% yoy. Positive contribution of exports and consumption. Improvement in earnings growth outlook. Nikkei relatively attractive. Key Points GDP growth in Japan accelerates to +2.5% yoy Export boom continues (+18.1%) Trade balance grows to 113 billion yen The North Korean crisis fails to affect private consumption, up +0.6% Wave of positive economic […]

29 Sep

European trend picks up the pace in the second half of the year

Eurozone and US growth is level pegging. Fundamentals justify the rise in the Euro. The gap between valuation and profits is benefiting European companies. Key Points The German elections have dampened prospects of European reconstruction The ECB is confident, but concerned by the rise in the Euro Monetary policy will remain expansionary in 2018, despite […]

21 Sep

A stronger euro will bolster GDP growth in Switzerland

Real GDP up +0.3% in Q2. The SECO and the SNB revise their growth forecasts downward. Nevertheless, the likelihood of an upturn is enhanced by the appreciation of the euro. Key Points Real GDP up +0.3% in Q2 A stronger euro promises further GDP growth Final demand bolsters GDP growth The trade balance is not […]