Publications

02 May

New opportunities on real estate markets in the Eurozone

Expected recovery in real estate in April. Rates are not yet a real threat. Favorable risk premium. The Eurozone outperforms. Return of interest for the US. Key Points Sharp rebound in real estate after a temporary correction of the indices International growth favorable to real estate Rising interest rates may soon be threatening in some […]

30 Apr

Bonds markets still relatively unaffected by US interest rates at 3%

Higher expected inflation in the USA. Warning on the interest rate markets. The European cycle is still hesitating. Confederation yields finally settle above zero. Key Points US Treasury long rates above 3% Gradual rise in expected inflation Reversal of he long-term rate cycle in the euro area British long-term rate at 2% Still no prospect […]

03 Apr

The temporary fall in industrial metals is an opportunity

The risk of a “trade war” is overstated. A rise in customs duties will not reduce demand. Limited production, robust demand, falling inventories. Key Points Industrial metals slide -7% in the 1st quarter, with only nickel playing its hand well Risks of a trade war are sparking widespread profit-taking Ongoing tensions, China will call on […]

01 Apr

Q2 Investment Strategy & Outlook 2018

Global Investment Climate – Key Points Slight economic dip, but excellent prospects for 2018 Renewed volatility forecast for financial markets Interest rates, inflation and the “trade war” put pressure on prices High equity valuations have now corrected More attractive new investment opportunities UAE Investment Climate – Key Points Stronger than expected GDP growth estimate in […]

26 Mar

New opportunities for Eurozone equities

Sustained growth in the Eurozone. Insufficient inflation. Risks of a strong Euro. Rise in long rates. Opportunities for Eurozone equities. Low PE and high yield. Key Points The end of quantitative easing heralds upcoming key rate normalisation The ECB will wait until inflation heads above 2% before changing its interest rates The risks of a […]

22 Mar

The Fed raises its rates and announces tighter policy for 2019

Is growth already slowing? Gradual rise in expected inflation. Risk of a trade war. Margins, profits and multipliers contract. Caution on the S&P 500. Key Points The Fed has announced two further rate rises in 2018, and likely three in 2019 Key rates at 2.875% in 2019 Is US growth already slowing? GDP forecast to […]

19 Mar

Twelve-month countdown for an agreement on Brexit terms

GDP is flagging. Twelve months to reach an agreement on Brexit terms. The pound remains stable and monetary policy unchanged. Long rates rise. Caution advised on equities. Key Points Economic activity flags in Q4 (+0.4%), 2018 expectations at +1.5% Agreement on post-Brexit transition period offers relief given tense context Forestalling failure in 12 months Cost […]

12 Mar

Strong yen threatens GDP growth and the equities market

It is essential that the yen weaken. Consumption and leading indicators are wavering. Exports and corporate earnings are faltering. Going long the Nikkei is premature. Key Points The strong yen is threatening Japanese growth Risk of economic slowdown in Q1 2018 The export cycle has already decelerated Corporate earnings growth is faltering Private consumption trends […]

05 Mar

Swiss GDP forecasts revised: +2.2% in 2018

The Swiss franc’s weak spell is not over. The bond bubble is deflating. Tensions on the interest rate curve. Corrections to risky assets could represent an opportunity. Key Points The forecast acceleration of Swiss GDP in the second half of the year will continue in 2018 +2.2% GDP growth in 2018 Leading indicators are looking […]

28 Feb

Probable trend reversal for the dollar in 2018

Dollar increasingly likely to bounce back. Waning influence of European fundamentals on the euro. Brexit to weigh on the pound again. Beware of the overly strong yen. Further adjustment of the franc. Key Points The dollar is likely to strengthen after three years of consolidation and a 50% correction following the 2011-2016 bull market Speculative […]