15
Oct
A difficult autumn for the United Kingdom with no deal Brexit in sight
Disappointing GDP growth. Greater economic risks in Q4. The BoE is considering applying negative rates. Long rates are close to zero. Negative prospects for the pound and equities.
Key Points
- A no deal Brexit is on the horizon, the worst-case
scenario is becoming increasingly likely - 1 trillion euros’ worth of trade will be subject to
new duties - Disappointing growth in the 3rd quarter
- 4th quarter GDP looks to be shakier than it seems
- Confidence is yet to return
- Leading indicators are misleadingly optimistic
- The BoE is preparing to cut its key rates
- Long rates remain close to zero
- Negative prospects for sterling
- British equities are paying the price of chaotic
politics
