THE BOE’S CURRENT STANCE IN THE FACE OF THE INFLATIONARY THREAT 2/3

18 Mar

THE BOE’S CURRENT STANCE IN THE FACE OF THE INFLATIONARY THREAT 2/3

The latest PMI indices signal a definitive end to the post-election recovery, as the dynamic services sector stalls under the weight of high operating costs and fiscal uncertainty. While the construction sector has already plunged into contraction, the upcoming data for March is expected to reflect a broader collapse in business activity as service providers freeze spending in response to increased employer social security contributions.

Key Points

  • The UK confirms near-stagnation in Q4
  • A difficult end to the year and a major geopolitical shock in 2026
  • An imminent reversal in PMI leading indicators
  • A deterioration in the labor market
  • Household confidence set to take a hit
  • Inflation once again threatened by the oil shock
  • BoE maintains status quo in the face of inflationary threat
  • Sharp rebound in bond yields
  • Changes in expectations for the pound sterling
  • Real estate penalized by the rate reversal
  • Negative outlook for the FTSE 250 in H1 2026