THE BOE’S CURRENT STANCE IN THE FACE OF THE INFLATIONARY THREAT 1/3

16 Mar

THE BOE’S CURRENT STANCE IN THE FACE OF THE INFLATIONARY THREAT 1/3

The UK economy narrowly avoided a technical recession in late 2025 with a marginal GDP increase of just 0.1%. This underwhelming result brought total annual growth for 2025 to a modest 1%, while per capita GDP suffered its second consecutive quarterly decline, signaling a persistent erosion of individual prosperity. This lackluster performance underscores a broader structural weakness, as the economy fails to generate meaningful momentum despite the avoidance of a formal downturn.

Key Points

  • The UK confirms near-stagnation in Q4
  • A difficult end to the year and a major geopolitical shock in 2026
  • An imminent reversal in PMI leading indicators
  • A deterioration in the labor market
  • Household confidence set to take a hit
  • Inflation once again threatened by the oil shock
  • BoE maintains status quo in the face of inflationary threat
  • Sharp rebound in bond yields
  • Changes in expectations for the pound sterling
  • Real estate penalized by the rate reversal
  • Negative outlook for the FTSE 250 in H1 2026