Publications

Power struggle to carry on beyond G20 meeting. Expectations of key rates’ cuts too high. Consumption to drive GDP. Reduce equity exposure once again. Key Points G20 fails to provide solutions but truce could induce Fed to hold off Central bank faced with a difficult choice Lowering rates will consolidate recession scenario Waiting until September […]

Industrial output down -2.7% and GDP down -0.4% in April. Pressure on the pound. BOE steps back. Seven contenders for Theresa May’s job. Key Points Who wants to replace Theresa May? Boris Johnson favourite among seven contenders Leading indicators deteriorated in May Manufacturing PMI drops under 50 Industrial output plunged by -2.7% in April Economic […]

Consumption picking up (+0.5%). PMIs still on the fence. Long-term rates at historical low. Euro relatively stable. High risk premiums on European equities (27%). Key Points European growth stronger than expected so far this year GDP up +0.4% (+1.2% yoy) Household consumption up +0.5% Leading indicators may have turned a corner and seem to be […]

GDP growth stabilises at +2% yoy. Cautious consumers. Manufacturing under pressure. BOJ may cut rates to -0.3%. Nikkei impacted by trade tensions. Key Points More positive surprises in Q1 with +0.5% GDP growth Japanese growth stabilises at +2% yoy, surprising forecasters Less impressive performance than it might seem Consumers remain worried Leading indicators still weighed […]

Sharp upturn in GDP growth. Solid outlook for 2019. Interest rate trends still atypical. Caution with regard to euphoria in the equity market. Key Points Sharp increase in GDP in Q1 (+0.6%, +1.7% yoy) We maintain a growth outlook of +1.5% for 2019 Domestic and foreign demand together are boosting economic momentum in Switzerland Outlook […]