Publications

Whatever the magnitude of the shock in Q1, what matters is the strength of the upswing in Q2. Sharp recovery of GDP. Inventory rebuild not to be underestimated. Rise in equities. Key Points China did not just halt its economy in February, it also implemented a series of extraordinary stimulus measures What can we expect […]

Likely recession in H1. BOE lowers rates and increases asset purchases. Swift rebound of long-term rates. New opportunities in real estate and equities. Key Points Boris Johnson does a U-turn and gives up on his so-called herd immunity strategy U-turn in terms of economic policy: fiscal stimulus package BOE announces exceptional measures Two consecutive key […]

GDP drop in Q4 2019. Likely recession in the current quarter. Exceptional new economic support measures. Prospects are now positive for the Nikkei. Key Points  Japan’s GDP collapsed before the coronavirus crisis Japan will almost certainly enter into recession in Q1 2020 More government economic support measures to come Loss of relevance of leading indicators  […]

The Covid-19 shocks the crude market. Saudi Arabia overturns the chessboard. New crude price war. American producers in turmoil. The forward structure predicts a rebound. Key Points Covid-19 causes first temporary demand shock Covid-19 and Saudi Arabia cause panic in a second step Saudi Arabia wants to take the initiative and gain market share US […]

Covid-19: a risk totally overlooked. Active management alone is able to counter a market shock. Is Covid-19 a lasting threat? Should we believe in a rapid rebound? Key Points A real threat yet totally neglected for almost two months Active and rational management alone is able to protect against a market shock The Covid-19 reminds […]