GDP is expected to fall by -32% in Q2, will not return to 2019 levels before 2022. The Fed systematises
yield curve control. End of interest rate volatility. Complacency on equities.
Key Points
Annualised GDP contraction of -32% in Q2?
GDP contraction of -5.5% in 2020 followed by a +3.9% recovery in 2021
Sharp rise in budget deficits, debt and the Fed’s balance sheet
Towards an institutionalisation of yield curve control by the Federal Reserve?