06
Jan
Changing uncertainty at the start of the new year in the US
Reduced trade tensions. Rising uncertainty relating to the elections. Resurgence of geopolitical risks. +2% GDP growth in 2020. Extreme equity valuations.
Key Points
- Real GDP growth of approximately +2.2% in 2019 and +2% in 2020
- Risk of polarisation between the Democrats’ and Republicans’ political programmes
- Election year could prove turbulent for investors
- Growth in 2020 driven by favourable situation in interest-rate markets
- Trade conflict likely to abate
- US yield curve returns to “normal”
- Further liquidity injections in 2020
- Leading indicators more optimistic
- Full employment driving consumption
- Equity markets threatened by high valuations and growing geopolitical risks
