Publications

Japanese government bond yields are stabilizing after a significant upward trend that saw them approach 1.6% in March 2025. This movement was initiated by the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decision in March 2024 to end its yield curve control policy, allowing long-term yields to be determined more freely by market forces. Key Points Slowdown in […]

Leading indicators for the Japanese economy in Q2 2025 present a mixed and uneven picture, suggesting a moderate and uneven growth trajectory. The services sector is showing signs of resilience but with a notable slowdown in its expansion, while the manufacturing sector remains in contraction for the eleventh consecutive month. The composite PMI for May […]

Japan’s GDP experienced an unexpected contraction in Q1 2025, the first decline in a year, which was more severe than anticipated. This downturn, with an annualized contraction of -0.7%, was primarily driven by stagnant private consumption and a significant negative contribution from net exports, highlighting the underlying fragility of the economy. Key Points Slowdown in […]

While inflationary risks are still present, the U.S. bond market is increasingly benefiting from the heightened risk of an economic slowdown. We believe a more rapid downward impact on long-term rates will materialize in response to economic data showing a clear weakening of consumption and investment. Since the peak of concern around the presidential inauguration, […]

Economic activity indicators from the New York and Richmond Feds have fallen to their lowest levels since early 2021. The composite PMI remains at a growth threshold of 53.5, but manufacturing has dipped below 50, and political uncertainty is clearly affecting industrial and consumer sentiment. Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest point since January […]

The U.S. economy, while posting a 2.4% annualized increase in Q4 2024 GDP, has since shown signs of a significant slowdown. This decline is reflected in the Citi Economic Surprise Indicator, which has been signaling a series of disappointments since mid-November. High-frequency data from the Atlanta and Philadelphia Feds also point to a clear reversal […]

Following the latest key rate cut, the German yield curve remains slightly upward sloping, with 10-year yields at 2.7%. The likelihood of further easing in short-term rates is increasingly tied to a continued fall in inflation and a weakening economic outlook. Real yields, which are the return on a bond after accounting for inflation, are […]

The latest leading indicators for March signal a clear recovery in the manufacturing sector. While still below the growth threshold, the manufacturing PMI has rebounded significantly from its December low, suggesting a new, positive dynamic is taking hold. This recovery is notably visible in Germany and France, where manufacturing PMI indicators have shown a clear […]

The Eurozone concluded the year with a modest +0.2% GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, representing a marked deceleration from the previous quarter. This weakened momentum was primarily driven by a significant slowdown in domestic demand. Overall, the zone ended the year with a modest +1.2% year-on-year increase in seasonally-adjusted GDP. Key Points […]

The bond market is gaining appeal, with anticipated rate cuts expected to soften the yield curve’s short end. While ten-year UK yields offer a premium over inflation, British debt is still seen as less secure. The yield curve is projected to normalize, improving prospects for long-term bonds. Key Points Economic weakness continues into 2025 Uncertainty […]