Publications

The US bond market has entered a phase of preventive adjustment, with 10-year yields stabilizing near 4.10%. While the real yield of 140 basis points remains attractive, capital gains must contend with a projected $1.8 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2025. This massive supply imposes a significant term premium that leaves the market structurally vulnerable […]

The latest leading indicators highlight a persistent two-speed economy. The ISM manufacturing index slipped to 48.2 in November, with new orders falling to 47.4, signaling an accelerating deterioration in industrial demand. While the services index showed resilience at 52.6, industrial employment hit yearly lows as factories reduced headcount to protect margins. This divide confirms that […]

The US economy decelerated in Q3, with annualized growth expected between +1.5% and +2.0% following Q2’s robust +3.8%. A 43-day federal shutdown significantly disrupted this trajectory, reducing quarterly growth by an estimated 1.2 percentage points according to the CBO. This slowdown reflects a cooling in government spending and a normalization of activity after the artificial […]

The ECB’s shift toward a status quo policy has fundamentally altered the interest rate landscape, rendering previous expectations of yield easing obsolete. Sovereign yields have stabilized, with German Bunds anchoring between 2.6% and 2.8% and Italian BTPs between 3.4% and 3.6%. For investors, this marks a transition to a neutral outlook where performance depends almost […]

As 2026 approaches, leading indicators suggest a gradual but sluggish recovery. While recession risks have likely been averted, there is no evidence of a clear acceleration. Economic signals remain “orange,” reflecting a persistent sectoral dichotomy where resilient services prevent contraction but lack the industrial support needed for a robust expansion. Key Points Resilience in Q3 […]

The Eurozone’s recovery momentum remains intact despite persistent political uncertainty and shifting industrial demand. Third-quarter GDP was confirmed at +0.3%, with an annual growth rate of +1.4%, slightly exceeding consensus expectations. This resilience is primarily anchored by a robust labor market that sustains household and business spending, alongside more competitive financing conditions as interest rates […]

In the current decelerating environment, UK Gilts offer a compelling value proposition. With nominal 10-year yields around 4.5% and real yields near 100 basis points, there is significant potential for capital appreciation as the economy slows and the Bank of England nears a pivot. The nearly 200 basis point spread over German Bunds provides a […]

The latest S&P Global/CIPS PMI indices for November reveal a decisive shift in the UK’s economic trajectory. The dynamic service-led growth observed in early 2025 has largely dissipated, replaced by a convergence toward stagnation. While the composite PMI remains marginally resilient, the services sector—the primary engine of the UK economy representing 80% of GDP—has stalled […]

The UK economy stalled sharply in Q3, with GDP growth falling to just +0.1%, well below the +0.2% consensus and the BoE’s +0.4% expectation. This reversal follows a strong first half of the year and is primarily driven by global trade tensions and weak external demand affecting the productive sector. Consequently, we have revised our […]

The Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market is currently undergoing a severe stress test. Yields have decoupled from negative Q3 growth fundamentals, reacting almost entirely to the shock October 3.0% inflation print. The 10-year yield has surged to a new baseline of 1.8%, indicating investors now demand a significantly higher risk premium to compensate for monetary […]