Publications

This stagflationary cocktail (stubborn core inflation, visible rate pass-through, and early labor market weakness) is immediately exacerbated by the U.S. government shutdown, which suspends the publication of crucial economic statistics and injects pervasive uncertainty into investment decisions. While recession risks argue for lower yields, the structural supply factors combined with persistent inflation pressures mean long-term […]

Leading indicators confirm an accelerated deceleration in activity. The Richmond Manufacturing Index fell steeply to -17 in September, indicating significant contraction in the industrial base. Concurrently, the ISM Manufacturing Index remains below 50 (at 49.1), validating reduced future output expectations and persistent shrinkage. This trend signals that external uncertainties are now converting into measurable reductions […]

According to the final estimate published by the BEA, US gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a strong annualized rate of +3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, marking a significant rebound after the -0.6% contraction observed in the first quarter. However, a detailed analysis reveals that this performance was primarily driven by volatile and […]

The UK bond market, or Gilts, continues to present a compelling value proposition, particularly for investors seeking stable income in an environment of prolonged high interest rates. The yield on the 10-year government bond is trading around 4.6%, which, with a current inflation rate of 3.8%, provides a positive real yield of approximately 80 basis […]

The latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) surveys for September continue to paint a picture of a divided economy. In contrast, the manufacturing sector remains mired in contraction, with its PMI at 47.0, its lowest level in several months. This pronounced sectoral divergence suggests an unbalanced and potentially unsustainable growth path, with the weakness of the […]

After an exceptionally strong start to 2025, the UK economy experienced a notable slowdown in the second quarter. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth settled at a more modest +0.3% quarter-on-quarter, a significant deceleration from the +0.7% surprise performance recorded in Q1. This performance places the United Kingdom in a mixed position when compared to […]

The Japanese bond market has seen a paradigm shift following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) formal end to yield curve control. This has allowed the yield on the 10-year government bond (JGB) to become more volatile and reflect economic fundamentals, but the market remains largely unattractive for foreign investors. The yields on offer are still […]

The latest PMI leading indicators reveal a two-speed economy with uncertain momentum. While the composite PMI remains in expansionary territory, this performance is driven by the solid services sector, which acts as the main engine of activity. In contrast, the manufacturing sector remains in contraction territory, a weakness corroborated by a persistent decline in industrial […]

Japan’s economy showed unexpected resilience in the second quarter of 2025, posting a robust performance that surpassed most forecasts. The primary driver of this growth was strong private consumption, which exceeded initial estimates and demonstrated a surprising dynamism within households. This momentum suggests that government measures and improving real wages are having a tangible positive […]

Our outlook for Swiss bonds has shifted to a cautious stance. While we have lowered our target for short-term rates, which could potentially push long-term yields below zero again, the prospects for capital gains are constrained. We believe that the current environment does not present a favorable risk-reward profile, and we therefore recommend maintaining an […]