Publications

The current, near-unanimous bullish consensus, particularly following the exceptional price surges in gold and silver, introduces a significant risk of market complacency. While core fundamentals (de-dollarization, central bank buying) remain solid, it is essential to assess the fair theoretical valuation and identify scenarios that could swiftly invalidate the prevailing narrative and trigger a substantial short-term […]

The precious metals market has achieved a spectacular performance in 2024 and 2025, with gold soaring to nearly $3,900 per ounce and silver exceeding $48 per ounce, outperforming all consensus targets. Prices have quickly materialized, exceeding recent bold consensus targets set by leading strategists, yet this shared optimism historically marks a period of heightened downside […]

This stagflationary cocktail (stubborn core inflation, visible rate pass-through, and early labor market weakness) is immediately exacerbated by the U.S. government shutdown, which suspends the publication of crucial economic statistics and injects pervasive uncertainty into investment decisions. While recession risks argue for lower yields, the structural supply factors combined with persistent inflation pressures mean long-term […]

Leading indicators confirm an accelerated deceleration in activity. The Richmond Manufacturing Index fell steeply to -17 in September, indicating significant contraction in the industrial base. Concurrently, the ISM Manufacturing Index remains below 50 (at 49.1), validating reduced future output expectations and persistent shrinkage. This trend signals that external uncertainties are now converting into measurable reductions […]

According to the final estimate published by the BEA, US gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a strong annualized rate of +3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, marking a significant rebound after the -0.6% contraction observed in the first quarter. However, a detailed analysis reveals that this performance was primarily driven by volatile and […]

The UK bond market, or Gilts, continues to present a compelling value proposition, particularly for investors seeking stable income in an environment of prolonged high interest rates. The yield on the 10-year government bond is trading around 4.6%, which, with a current inflation rate of 3.8%, provides a positive real yield of approximately 80 basis […]

The latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) surveys for September continue to paint a picture of a divided economy. In contrast, the manufacturing sector remains mired in contraction, with its PMI at 47.0, its lowest level in several months. This pronounced sectoral divergence suggests an unbalanced and potentially unsustainable growth path, with the weakness of the […]

After an exceptionally strong start to 2025, the UK economy experienced a notable slowdown in the second quarter. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth settled at a more modest +0.3% quarter-on-quarter, a significant deceleration from the +0.7% surprise performance recorded in Q1. This performance places the United Kingdom in a mixed position when compared to […]

The Japanese bond market has seen a paradigm shift following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) formal end to yield curve control. This has allowed the yield on the 10-year government bond (JGB) to become more volatile and reflect economic fundamentals, but the market remains largely unattractive for foreign investors. The yields on offer are still […]

The latest PMI leading indicators reveal a two-speed economy with uncertain momentum. While the composite PMI remains in expansionary territory, this performance is driven by the solid services sector, which acts as the main engine of activity. In contrast, the manufacturing sector remains in contraction territory, a weakness corroborated by a persistent decline in industrial […]