Japanese government bond yields are continuing their upward trajectory, recently reaching levels not observed in over two decades. The gradual increase from -0.25% in 2019 accelerated significantly after the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) initial policy shift in January 2024. This trend has pushed 10-year yields from 0.8% at the end of September 2024 to a […]

Leading indicators present a mixed but overall positive picture, primarily driven by the services sector. The Manufacturing PMI remained weak at 48.9, marking its eighth month of contraction. Conversely, the services sector showed strong expansion with a robust January reading of 53.1. The Composite PMI, largely underpinned by services, stands at an encouraging 51.6, signaling […]

After a period of sluggish performance, the Japanese economy displayed unexpected resilience and dynamism in the final quarter of 2024. This surprising upturn has now renewed optimism for a stronger-than-expected start to 2025. Japan’s real GDP grew by a robust +0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis, a rate double the consensus forecast of +0.3%. While […]

The Swiss franc is poised for a new phase of weakness, particularly against the euro. Despite its traditional role as a safe-haven currency, the SNB’s accommodative monetary policy is a powerful counterbalance. The franc has already met our target of 0.92 against the US dollar, but the more significant movement is expected against the euro. […]

Swiss exports experienced a decline in January, falling by -3.9% in real terms, despite a sharp rise in December. This slide highlights the ongoing struggle against weak global demand and the uncertainties associated with potential new trade tariffs from the US, which could indirectly impact Swiss trade. While the depreciation of the franc against the […]

Switzerland’s economic momentum slowed in 2024, with seasonally adjusted GDP growth at +0.9%, down from +1.2% in 2023. This deceleration was primarily due to a negative contribution from foreign trade, which was impacted by a decline in transit trade. Despite this, domestic consumption remained a key driver of growth, demonstrating above-average momentum and resilience. The […]

Negative GDP in Q2. Resilient leading indicators. The BoE fears inflation at +12% Monetary policy measured. Decreasing risks for the pound. Opportunities in bonds. Attractive relative valuations for equities. Key Points UK GDP advanced by +0.8% in Q1 The 2nd quarter could be down by -0.2 Surprising resilience of leading indicators in Q2 Unemployment rate […]

Domestic demand is supporting growth. Strong franc dampens inflationary momentum. Unexpected change in monetary policy by the SNB. Extreme volatility in the capital market. A window of opportunity opens for Swiss stocks. Key Points Swiss economy resists headwinds Public and private consumption remain the main drivers of the Swiss economy Leading indicators continue to plummet […]

The Swiss economy is in top form. Growth figures leading to trend reversal in bond markets. The SNB is still not afraid of inflation. Significant correction underway in equity markets. Key Points Swiss GDP grows +1.8% in Q2 2021 and 7.7% year-on-year Strong comeback of domestic demand Leading indicators support a solid growth outlook Manufacturing […]

Equity markets are threatened by rising interest rates following the historic rebound in inflation. Trend change in the “Growth” vs “Value” match. Complicated outlook for US equities. European equities are already approaching their 2021 targets. Key Points Rising US inflation and long rates threaten equity markets Trend change in the “Growth” vs “Value” match Complicated […]