Fixed-income markets face a challenging dilemma, caught between the opposing forces of inflationary risks and fears of a sharp economic slowdown. This difficult situation is largely due to the dual nature of Trump’s tariff policy, which is poised to be both inflationary by raising import prices and recessionary by dampening consumer spending and business investment. […]

Leading indicators for the second quarter of 2025 present a mixed but not catastrophic picture for the US economy, with some rebounding while others remain below growth thresholds. The ISM services index registered its lowest level for twelve months, while the manufacturing index remains in contraction territory, suggesting that political uncertainty is weighing on both […]

The U.S. economy’s Q1 GDP contraction of -0.5% annualized was a misleading indicator of its true underlying health, resulting from short-term statistical factors rather than a broad economic decline. A substantial rebound is anticipated in the second quarter, though this is expected to be a statistical correction, not a genuine strengthening of the economy. Key […]

Following the latest key rate cut, short-term yields in the Eurozone are near inflation, leaving real yields close to zero. The outlook for further cuts depends on a continued decline in inflation and economic conditions. We expect the downward trend in inflation and the ECB’s accommodative stance to continue pressuring yield curves, particularly at shorter […]

Leading economic indicators for the second quarter of 2025 suggest a continuation of growth in the Eurozone, albeit at a very slow pace. While the manufacturing sector is showing signs of stabilizing, the services sector, which has been the primary driver of recent activity, appears to be losing momentum. This divergence highlights a nuanced and […]

The Eurozone started 2025 on a better-than-expected note, with GDP growth of +0.3% in Q1. While modest, this figure marks a slight acceleration from the previous quarter, largely driven by inventory changes and a surprising recovery in Germany. This growth performance stands in contrast to the contraction seen in the U.S. economy during the same […]

The UK government yield curve has flattened, with 10-year yields at 4.45% and remaining significantly above the CPI of +3.4%. While this offers attractive yields, the risk premium has narrowed, and a further decline in inflation will be needed to push long-term rates lower. Compared to other major economies, UK sovereign debt is considered relatively […]

Leading indicators for May 2025 present a mixed picture of the UK economy. The Composite PMI increased slightly to 50.3, driven by a modest recovery in the services sector, which reached a PMI of 50.9. However, this rebound remains fragile. In stark contrast, the manufacturing sector’s PMI fell to 46.4, its worst performance in 19 […]

The UK economy started 2025 with a surprisingly strong performance, with its GDP growing by +0.7% in the first quarter, the best among the G7. This growth was mainly driven by the services sector, exports, and fixed investment. This performance significantly outpaced other G7 economies, including the Eurozone’s +0.3% and the US’s -0.1%. This result […]

Leading indicators for the Swiss economy remain mixed. The manufacturing sector continues to struggle, with its PMI dropping to a 5-year low, while the services sector shows resilience. Consumer confidence has improved slightly but remains pessimistic, and retail sales are subdued. Key Points A surprisingly robust first quarter for the GDP High risks of growth […]