المنشورات

The Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market is currently undergoing a severe stress test. Yields have decoupled from negative Q3 growth fundamentals, reacting almost entirely to the shock October 3.0% inflation print. The 10-year yield has surged to a new baseline of 1.8%, indicating investors now demand a significantly higher risk premium to compensate for monetary […]

November’s PMI data confirms a deepening economic bifurcation. While the composite index remains resilient at 51.5, it masks a dangerous imbalance: the service sector (53.1) stands as the sole growth engine, while manufacturing remains stuck in contraction. This “two-speed” dynamic leaves the economy’s momentum fragile, heavily reliant on services to offset industrial weakness. Key Points […]

The Japanese economy stalled abruptly in Q3 2025, ending a streak of consecutive growth quarters with a GDP contraction of -0.4% (-1.8% annualized). This performance, while slightly better than the feared -0.6% decline, marks the first contraction since early 2024 and signals a definitive shift in growth dynamics. The primary driver was a negative contribution […]

Despite a domestic GDP contraction of -0.5% and zero interest rates, the Swiss Franc remains in high demand, driven by global risk-off sentiment and flight to safety. Its status as a global sanctuary is underpinned by exemplary fiscal discipline (40% public debt) and political stability, differentiating it from highly indebted peers. This strength, amplified by […]

The reduced US customs duties (from 39% to 15%) is expected to be a significant catalyst for Swiss exports, unblocking delayed logistical flows and enabling the shipment of inventoried goods. This necessary inventory correction should allow GDP to rebound and potentially avoid a prolonged technical recession, though sectors reliant on global capital expenditure, like machinery, […]

The flash GDP estimate published by SECO on November 17th reported an unexpected contraction of -0.5% for Q3 2025. This result abruptly deviated from the market consensus for a soft landing, confirming the more cautious forecasts held by independent analysts. This figure signals a decisive break from the positive momentum observed earlier in the year […]

The primary threat is not that Artificial Intelligence itself is a temporary fad, but rather that current stock market valuations are aggressively pricing in 10 years of projected profits that have yet to materialize. The market has entered a critical “Show Me the Money” phase, demanding tangible evidence of revenue generation, particularly from Layer 3 […]

The battle for AI supremacy is currently fought among five distinct strategic forces. OpenAI/Microsoft serves as the Catalyst and innovator, dominating API adoption with models like GPT-4o. Google is the Awakened Giant, leveraging its Gemini family and unmatched ecosystem (Search, Android) to compete on performance. Meta is the Open-Source Champion, offering its Llama models freely—a […]

Artificial Intelligence has moved from academic obscurity to a central corporate and economic strategic driver in just five years, catalyzed by the breakthrough of generative AI. This period was defined not by slow, linear evolution, but by a frantic, exponential race for performance and immediate public access. The market is shifting toward “The Great Sorting” […]

The current, near-unanimous bullish consensus, particularly following the exceptional price surges in gold and silver, introduces a significant risk of market complacency. While core fundamentals (de-dollarization, central bank buying) remain solid, it is essential to assess the fair theoretical valuation and identify scenarios that could swiftly invalidate the prevailing narrative and trigger a substantial short-term […]