THE HOUR OF TRUTH DRAWS NEAR IN THE UNITED STATES 1/3

14 Jul

THE HOUR OF TRUTH DRAWS NEAR IN THE UNITED STATES 1/3

The U.S. economy's Q1 GDP contraction of -0.5% annualized was a misleading indicator of its true underlying health, resulting from short-term statistical factors rather than a broad economic decline. A substantial rebound is anticipated in the second quarter, though this is expected to be a statistical correction, not a genuine strengthening of the economy.

Key Points

  • GDP likely but misleading to rebound in Q2
  • Economy withstands Trump-induced chaos
  • Leading indicators remain indecisive
  • Employment shows signs of cracking
  • Dilemma remains intact for Fed
  • Price indices yet to react to tariffs
  • Between recession and inflation rates also waver
  • Chaos has not been kind to the dollar
  • Rebalancing in favor of more defensive sectors