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STAGFLATION RESHUFFLES THE DECKS FOR JAPANESE ASSETS 2/3

26 Nov

STAGFLATION RESHUFFLES THE DECKS FOR JAPANESE ASSETS 2/3

Posted by BearBull Group In Investment Insight 0 comment

November's PMI data confirms a deepening economic bifurcation. While the composite index remains resilient at 51.5, it masks a dangerous imbalance: the service sector (53.1) stands as the sole growth engine, while manufacturing remains stuck in contraction. This "two-speed" dynamic leaves the economy's momentum fragile, heavily reliant on services to offset industrial weakness.

Key Points

  • Exports stall, GDP falls by -0.4% in Q3
  • Possible GDP recovery in Q4, but on a knife edge
  • Exacerbated dichotomy in sectoral PMIs
  • Consumer confidence remains hesitant
  • Inflation remains well above the BoJ’s target
  • Bank of Japan caught between forced normalization and recession risk
  • Specter of stagflation pushes up yield curve
  • Without rate hike, yen remains under pressure
  • Stagflation risks threaten Nikkei
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