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STAGFLATION RESHUFFLES THE DECKS FOR JAPANESE ASSETS 1/3

02 Mar

STAGFLATION RESHUFFLES THE DECKS FOR JAPANESE ASSETS 1/3

Posted by BearBull Group In Investment Insight 0 comment

The Japanese economy concluded 2025 in a precarious balance, narrowly avoiding a technical recession. February 2026 data confirms a marginal GDP rebound of +0.1%, reversing the previous quarter's -0.4% contraction. Despite this return to growth, the recovery remains fragile and uneven, suppressed by persistent domestic inflation and external trade barriers that have significantly hindered broader economic momentum.

Key Points

  • A difficult recovery in Q4
  • A first quarter marked by tensions between resilience and external shocks
  • Positive leading indicators before the energy crisis
  • Further decline in consumer confidence likely
  • Probable and temporary rebound in inflation
  • The equation has become more complex for the BoJ
  • The specter of stagflation threatens the yield curve
  • Yen under energy shock and monetary deadlock
  • Stagflation risks threaten the Nikkei
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