STAGFLATION IS ALSO THREATENING THE UNITED STATES 2/3

08 Apr

STAGFLATION IS ALSO THREATENING THE UNITED STATES 2/3

March data reveals a stark divergence between a resilient "Made in USA" industrial sector and a services sector buckling under energy costs. While the Composite PMI remains in expansion at 51.4, the services component is teetering on contraction as soaring gasoline prices act as a direct tax on discretionary spending. This sudden loss of industrial velocity suggests that the region's brief recovery phase has already peaked.

Key Points

  • Sharp slowdown in Q4 weighed down by the shutdown
  • The oil shock already points to stagflation in Q1
  • Oil shock still not fully reflected in the PMIs
  • Job creation begins to contract
  • The Fed once again faces the risk of stagflation
  • Inflation likely to rebound to between 3.5% and 4%
  • Outlook for bonds reverses
  • Investor enthusiasm for the dollar returns
  • Uncertain environment remains negative for U.S. stocks