Bearbull Global Investments

STAGFLATION IS ALSO THREATENING THE UNITED STATES 1/3

06 Apr

STAGFLATION IS ALSO THREATENING THE UNITED STATES 1/3

Posted by BearBull Group In Investment Insight 0 comment

The 43-day federal shutdown (October 1 – November 12, 2025) left a more profound mark on the economy than initial models predicted, shaving an estimated 1.15 percentage points off Q4 growth. This historic paralysis triggered a massive 16.6% contraction in federal spending and froze strategic private-sector decisions due to a total lack of statistical visibility. Consequently, wealth creation plateaued at just 0.7%, revealing a deep structural vulnerability to internal political shocks.

Key Points

  • Sharp slowdown in Q4 weighed down by the shutdown
  • The oil shock already points to stagflation in Q1
  • Oil shock still not fully reflected in the PMIs
  • Job creation begins to contract
  • The Fed once again faces the risk of stagflation
  • Inflation likely to rebound to between 3.5% and 4%
  • Outlook for bonds reverses
  • Investor enthusiasm for the dollar returns
  • Uncertain environment remains negative for U.S. stocks
Read more
© 2024 BearBull Global Investments Group | All rights reserved .

BearBull Global Investments Group Limited is licensed by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA)
Legal Privacy Policy Sitemap
* Type a keyword then press Enter