STAGFLATION: A NEW CHALLENGE FOR THE EURO ZONE 3/3

03 Apr

STAGFLATION: A NEW CHALLENGE FOR THE EURO ZONE 3/3

European bond markets transitioned from a flattening yield curve to a sharp spike in yields within mere sessions. The benchmark 10-year German Bund breached the 3% psychological threshold, while the French OAT surged toward 3.8%, levels not seen in years. This mass sell-off reflects a total reconfiguration of inflation expectations, accompanied by widening spreads as investors begin to re-price the varying fiscal vulnerabilities of member states in a high-rate environment.

Key Points

  • Q4 trend strongly called into question in Q1
  • Will the GDP forecast for H1 be revised to zero?
  • Leading indicators point to stagflation
  • Consumer confidence plummets
  • Inflation: Return of energy risks in 2026
  • New ECB policy: 3 rate hikes in 2026?
  • Rising bond yields and risk premiums
  • The oil crisis weighs on the euro against the dollar
  • The rate shock weighs on securitized real estate
  • European stocks react to possible stagflation