STAGFLATION: A NEW CHALLENGE FOR THE EURO ZONE 1/3

30 Mar

STAGFLATION: A NEW CHALLENGE FOR THE EURO ZONE 1/3

The Eurozone ended 2025 on a modest note, with Q4 GDP at 0.2% supported by steady private and public spending. This resilience was anchored by a robust labor market nearing full employment, which buffered household investment against trade adjustments and provided a stable, albeit low-level, foundation for the broader economy. This stability now appears increasingly precarious as external shocks begin to outweigh internal strengths.

Key Points

  • Q4 trend strongly called into question in Q1
  • Will the GDP forecast for H1 be revised to zero?
  • Leading indicators point to stagflation
  • Consumer confidence plummets
  • Inflation: Return of energy risks in 2026
  • New ECB policy: 3 rate hikes in 2026?
  • Rising bond yields and risk premiums
  • The oil crisis weighs on the euro against the dollar
  • The rate shock weighs on securitized real estate
  • European stocks react to possible stagflation