Publications

Japanese government bond yields are continuing their upward trajectory, recently reaching levels not observed in over two decades. The gradual increase from -0.25% in 2019 accelerated significantly after the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) initial policy shift in January 2024. This trend has pushed 10-year yields from 0.8% at the end of September 2024 to a […]

Leading indicators present a mixed but overall positive picture, primarily driven by the services sector. The Manufacturing PMI remained weak at 48.9, marking its eighth month of contraction. Conversely, the services sector showed strong expansion with a robust January reading of 53.1. The Composite PMI, largely underpinned by services, stands at an encouraging 51.6, signaling […]

After a period of sluggish performance, the Japanese economy displayed unexpected resilience and dynamism in the final quarter of 2024. This surprising upturn has now renewed optimism for a stronger-than-expected start to 2025. Japan’s real GDP grew by a robust +0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis, a rate double the consensus forecast of +0.3%. While […]

The Swiss franc is poised for a new phase of weakness, particularly against the euro. Despite its traditional role as a safe-haven currency, the SNB’s accommodative monetary policy is a powerful counterbalance. The franc has already met our target of 0.92 against the US dollar, but the more significant movement is expected against the euro. […]

Swiss exports experienced a decline in January, falling by -3.9% in real terms, despite a sharp rise in December. This slide highlights the ongoing struggle against weak global demand and the uncertainties associated with potential new trade tariffs from the US, which could indirectly impact Swiss trade. While the depreciation of the franc against the […]

Switzerland’s economic momentum slowed in 2024, with seasonally adjusted GDP growth at +0.9%, down from +1.2% in 2023. This deceleration was primarily due to a negative contribution from foreign trade, which was impacted by a decline in transit trade. Despite this, domestic consumption remained a key driver of growth, demonstrating above-average momentum and resilience. The […]