Publications

The latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) surveys for September continue to paint a picture of a divided economy. In contrast, the manufacturing sector remains mired in contraction, with its PMI at 47.0, its lowest level in several months. This pronounced sectoral divergence suggests an unbalanced and potentially unsustainable growth path, with the weakness of the […]

After an exceptionally strong start to 2025, the UK economy experienced a notable slowdown in the second quarter. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth settled at a more modest +0.3% quarter-on-quarter, a significant deceleration from the +0.7% surprise performance recorded in Q1. This performance places the United Kingdom in a mixed position when compared to […]

The Japanese bond market has seen a paradigm shift following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) formal end to yield curve control. This has allowed the yield on the 10-year government bond (JGB) to become more volatile and reflect economic fundamentals, but the market remains largely unattractive for foreign investors. The yields on offer are still […]

The latest PMI leading indicators reveal a two-speed economy with uncertain momentum. While the composite PMI remains in expansionary territory, this performance is driven by the solid services sector, which acts as the main engine of activity. In contrast, the manufacturing sector remains in contraction territory, a weakness corroborated by a persistent decline in industrial […]

Japan’s economy showed unexpected resilience in the second quarter of 2025, posting a robust performance that surpassed most forecasts. The primary driver of this growth was strong private consumption, which exceeded initial estimates and demonstrated a surprising dynamism within households. This momentum suggests that government measures and improving real wages are having a tangible positive […]

Our outlook for Swiss bonds has shifted to a cautious stance. While we have lowered our target for short-term rates, which could potentially push long-term yields below zero again, the prospects for capital gains are constrained. We believe that the current environment does not present a favorable risk-reward profile, and we therefore recommend maintaining an […]

The latest leading indicators for Q3 present a very mixed economic outlook. The manufacturing sector continues to face significant difficulties, with the industrial PMI remaining in contraction territory for the sixth consecutive month. In contrast, the services sector remains a critical pillar of support for the economy. Key Points Moderate growth in Q2 confirms expected […]

Switzerland’s real GDP grew by a modest +0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, marking a significant deceleration from the exceptional +0.8% recorded in the first quarter. This return to a more moderate pace of expansion was widely anticipated, as the Q1 surge was largely driven by unique, non-recurring factors. Key Points Moderate growth in Q2 confirms […]

Fixed-income markets face a challenging dilemma, caught between the opposing forces of inflationary risks and fears of a sharp economic slowdown. This difficult situation is largely due to the dual nature of Trump’s tariff policy, which is poised to be both inflationary by raising import prices and recessionary by dampening consumer spending and business investment. […]

Leading indicators for the second quarter of 2025 present a mixed but not catastrophic picture for the US economy, with some rebounding while others remain below growth thresholds. The ISM services index registered its lowest level for twelve months, while the manufacturing index remains in contraction territory, suggesting that political uncertainty is weighing on both […]