Publications

Contraction over the last quarter in Germany? Leading indicators rather bleak. ECB remains confident. Policy rates unchanged. New opportunities in equities. Key Points GDP growth down -0.2% in Q3 German industrial output drops -1.9% Slowdown in Europe is intensifying Five largest EU economies are weakening Leading indicators not optimistic Confidence gives way to concern Euro […]

Fed stays the course. Record job creation and wage increases. Long-term interest rates no longer contracting. Equity markets on the upswing. Caution on earnings expectations. Key Points Federal Reserve stays the course in spite of market jitters 0.25% rate hike to 2.5% Fed marginally reduces its growth outlook for 2019 to +2.5% Job market will […]

Worrisome decline in GDP growth (+0.1%). Theresa May has no plan B. Increasing likelihood of a referendum. Intolerable costs of a “no deal”. Avoid equities and bonds. Key Points Theresa May will play her last card in January Why not consider a plan B? New referendum to break the deadlock Only 34% of the British […]

Yield curve inversion still synonymous with recession? Flattening versus inversion. Current situation and outlook. The Fed is not dogmatic. Unfounded fears. Key Points Markets spooked in December by the risk of a yield curve inversion Risk-off mode prevails everywhere What yield curve inversion are we talking about exactly? Yield curve flattening rather than inverting? Is […]

Sharpest contraction of GDP since 2014. Economic rally in Q4. Stabilisation of the yen. Leading indicators weighed down by uncertainty. Inflation reaches +1.4%. Nikkei on the upswing. Key Points Unexpected growth shock in Q3; Japanese GDP dropped by -0.6%, or -2.5% yoy Exports pick up in Q4 Trade balance turned negative Imports jumped by +19.9% […]