Publications

As 2026 approaches, leading indicators suggest a gradual but sluggish recovery. While recession risks have likely been averted, there is no evidence of a clear acceleration. Economic signals remain “orange,” reflecting a persistent sectoral dichotomy where resilient services prevent contraction but lack the industrial support needed for a robust expansion. Key Points Resilience in Q3 […]

The Eurozone’s recovery momentum remains intact despite persistent political uncertainty and shifting industrial demand. Third-quarter GDP was confirmed at +0.3%, with an annual growth rate of +1.4%, slightly exceeding consensus expectations. This resilience is primarily anchored by a robust labor market that sustains household and business spending, alongside more competitive financing conditions as interest rates […]

In the current decelerating environment, UK Gilts offer a compelling value proposition. With nominal 10-year yields around 4.5% and real yields near 100 basis points, there is significant potential for capital appreciation as the economy slows and the Bank of England nears a pivot. The nearly 200 basis point spread over German Bunds provides a […]

The latest S&P Global/CIPS PMI indices for November reveal a decisive shift in the UK’s economic trajectory. The dynamic service-led growth observed in early 2025 has largely dissipated, replaced by a convergence toward stagnation. While the composite PMI remains marginally resilient, the services sector—the primary engine of the UK economy representing 80% of GDP—has stalled […]

The UK economy stalled sharply in Q3, with GDP growth falling to just +0.1%, well below the +0.2% consensus and the BoE’s +0.4% expectation. This reversal follows a strong first half of the year and is primarily driven by global trade tensions and weak external demand affecting the productive sector. Consequently, we have revised our […]

The Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market is currently undergoing a severe stress test. Yields have decoupled from negative Q3 growth fundamentals, reacting almost entirely to the shock October 3.0% inflation print. The 10-year yield has surged to a new baseline of 1.8%, indicating investors now demand a significantly higher risk premium to compensate for monetary […]

November’s PMI data confirms a deepening economic bifurcation. While the composite index remains resilient at 51.5, it masks a dangerous imbalance: the service sector (53.1) stands as the sole growth engine, while manufacturing remains stuck in contraction. This “two-speed” dynamic leaves the economy’s momentum fragile, heavily reliant on services to offset industrial weakness. Key Points […]

The Japanese economy stalled abruptly in Q3 2025, ending a streak of consecutive growth quarters with a GDP contraction of -0.4% (-1.8% annualized). This performance, while slightly better than the feared -0.6% decline, marks the first contraction since early 2024 and signals a definitive shift in growth dynamics. The primary driver was a negative contribution […]

Despite a domestic GDP contraction of -0.5% and zero interest rates, the Swiss Franc remains in high demand, driven by global risk-off sentiment and flight to safety. Its status as a global sanctuary is underpinned by exemplary fiscal discipline (40% public debt) and political stability, differentiating it from highly indebted peers. This strength, amplified by […]

The reduced US customs duties (from 39% to 15%) is expected to be a significant catalyst for Swiss exports, unblocking delayed logistical flows and enabling the shipment of inventoried goods. This necessary inventory correction should allow GDP to rebound and potentially avoid a prolonged technical recession, though sectors reliant on global capital expenditure, like machinery, […]