NEW UNEXPECTED RISKS FOR SWISS ASSETS 3/3

13 Mar

NEW UNEXPECTED RISKS FOR SWISS ASSETS 3/3

The Swiss franc’s renewed strength highlights a paradox where safe-haven demand outweighs negative interest rate differentials and domestic recession risks. Buoyed by exemplary fiscal discipline, with public debt at only 40% of GDP, Switzerland remains a global outlier compared to more heavily leveraged nations. Given the country's unparalleled political stability and the severe threat the Middle East conflict poses to global supply chains, a significant weakening of the currency appears unlikely in the near term.

Key Points

  • The Swiss economy avoids a technical recession in Q4
  • The war in the Middle East also threatens Switzerland
  • Headwinds for the Swiss economy amid the oil shock
  • Leading indicators are largely lagging
  • Inflation likely to reverse course
  • New dilemma for the SNB ahead of its March meeting
  • The franc remains buoyed by geopolitical risks
  • Inflation risks are turning the fixed-income market upside down
  • Risks of a correction in real estate and equities