17
Mar
New Crude price War: The forward structure predicts a rebound
The Covid-19 shocks the crude market. Saudi Arabia overturns the chessboard. New crude price war. American producers in turmoil. The forward structure predicts a rebound.
Key Points
- Covid-19 causes first temporary demand shock
- Covid-19 and Saudi Arabia cause panic in a second step
- Saudi Arabia wants to take the initiative and gain market share
- US shale oil producers in the eye of the storm
- Massive fall in CAPEX, decrease in the production of “US shale oil”
- A first semester characterized by an increase in inventories
- A resumption of activity and demand in the second half
- Crude prices could rise again before the end of the year, average price of $ 50 in 2020
