MODERATE OUTLOOK FOR THE EUROZONE IN 2026 1/3

15 Dec

MODERATE OUTLOOK FOR THE EUROZONE IN 2026 1/3

The Eurozone's recovery momentum remains intact despite persistent political uncertainty and shifting industrial demand. Third-quarter GDP was confirmed at +0.3%, with an annual growth rate of +1.4%, slightly exceeding consensus expectations. This resilience is primarily anchored by a robust labor market that sustains household and business spending, alongside more competitive financing conditions as interest rates ease. While net trade acted as a minor drag, the overall economy has weathered initial tariff disruptions effectively, establishing a solid foundation for the fourth quarter.

Key Points

  • Resilience in Q3 heralds a positive Q4 as well
  • Positive but fragile growth in 2026
  • Leading indicators point to a sluggish recovery
  • Household confidence remains defensive
  • Prices set to stabilize at the end of the year
  • No further rate cuts on the horizon for the ECB
  • The ECB’s pause reshuffles the cards on the interest rate market
  • Another complex situation for the euro
  • Securitized real estate remains undeniably attractive
  • The discount on European stock market indices is struggling to disappear