Economic activity indicators from the New York and Richmond Feds have fallen to their lowest levels since early 2021. The composite PMI remains at a growth threshold of 53.5, but manufacturing has dipped below 50, and political uncertainty is clearly affecting industrial and consumer sentiment. Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest point since January […]

The U.S. economy, while posting a 2.4% annualized increase in Q4 2024 GDP, has since shown signs of a significant slowdown. This decline is reflected in the Citi Economic Surprise Indicator, which has been signaling a series of disappointments since mid-November. High-frequency data from the Atlanta and Philadelphia Feds also point to a clear reversal […]

Following the latest key rate cut, the German yield curve remains slightly upward sloping, with 10-year yields at 2.7%. The likelihood of further easing in short-term rates is increasingly tied to a continued fall in inflation and a weakening economic outlook. Real yields, which are the return on a bond after accounting for inflation, are […]

The latest leading indicators for March signal a clear recovery in the manufacturing sector. While still below the growth threshold, the manufacturing PMI has rebounded significantly from its December low, suggesting a new, positive dynamic is taking hold. This recovery is notably visible in Germany and France, where manufacturing PMI indicators have shown a clear […]

The Eurozone concluded the year with a modest +0.2% GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, representing a marked deceleration from the previous quarter. This weakened momentum was primarily driven by a significant slowdown in domestic demand. Overall, the zone ended the year with a modest +1.2% year-on-year increase in seasonally-adjusted GDP. Key Points […]

The bond market is gaining appeal, with anticipated rate cuts expected to soften the yield curve’s short end. While ten-year UK yields offer a premium over inflation, British debt is still seen as less secure. The yield curve is projected to normalize, improving prospects for long-term bonds. Key Points Economic weakness continues into 2025 Uncertainty […]

UK economic indicators continue to show persistent fragility. The manufacturing PMI remains on a downward trend at 44.6, signaling difficult times ahead. However, the services PMI has rebounded to 53.2, suggesting potential support for overall GDP. The absence of the public sector in these measurements raises concerns that ongoing budget cuts could further challenge growth […]

The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by -0.1% in January, a notable reversal after a positive December. This decline marks the fourth monthly contraction in seven months, signaling a continued trend of economic uncertainty. The drop in manufacturing and construction output was partly due to difficult weather conditions, but these sectors are expected to rebound as […]