Bearbull Investment Insight – Flash note – Japan 1/3

10 Mar

Bearbull Investment Insight – Flash note – Japan 1/3

After a period of sluggish performance, the Japanese economy displayed unexpected resilience and dynamism in the final quarter of 2024. This surprising upturn has now renewed optimism for a stronger-than-expected start to 2025. Japan's real GDP grew by a robust +0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis, a rate double the consensus forecast of +0.3%. While this quarterly performance was strong, the broader picture for the year was more tempered. The Q4 results only managed to lift the year-on-year growth to a modest +0.1%, marking the lowest growth rate since the global pandemic began.

Key Points

  • Strong Japanese economic recovery supported by rising exports
  • First quarter of 2025 likely to be solid
  • Leading indicators supported by services
  • Consumption resilient but still cautious
  • Inflation rebounds to +4% again
  • BoJ to raise key rates again in March
  • 10-year yields approach 1.5%
  • Yen-friendly yield differential
  • Nikkei likely to consolidate