A POSITIVE NEW PARADIGM FOR EUROPE 3/3

11 Apr

A POSITIVE NEW PARADIGM FOR EUROPE 3/3

Following the latest key rate cut, the German yield curve remains slightly upward sloping, with 10-year yields at 2.7%. The likelihood of further easing in short-term rates is increasingly tied to a continued fall in inflation and a weakening economic outlook. Real yields, which are the return on a bond after accounting for inflation, are currently close to zero for Germany. This environment offers a positive but moderate outlook for investors.

Key Points

  • Eurozone momentum weakens again
  • Q1 2025 will remain weak before the next upturn
  • Leading indicators are already strengthening
  • Household confidence set to improve in Q2
  • Inflation stabilizes around ECB target
  • ECB to cut rates by a further 0.25% in Q2
  • Positive but moderate outlook for eurozone bond markets
  • Euro benefits from new German paradigm
  • Real estate to benefit from improving sentiment
  • European stocks back in favor with investors