WILL THE FRANC FALL THIS SUMMER? 3/3

24 Jun

WILL THE FRANC FALL THIS SUMMER? 3/3

The formal signing of the U.S.-Iran peace memorandum has reversed defensive capital flows, leaving the Swiss franc weaker than its pre-conflict benchmarks. This de-escalation has dried up safe-haven demand as regional shipping bottlenecks dissolve. SNB President Martin Schlegel signaled that a moderate inflation rebound to +0.6% is entirely acceptable within their 0% to 2% target range, confirming that policymakers will not rush to alter their accommodative stance. The central bank's focus has decisively shifted away from fighting aggressive disinflation.

Key Points

  • GDP rose (0.4%) despite sluggish consumption
  • Outlook weaker but positive for Q2 (+0.2%)
  • A slowdown that will extend into Q3
  • Surprisingly strong signals from leading indicators
  • Upward revisions to inflation expectations
  • Status quo at the SNB at least through September
  • A short-term “game changer” for the franc
  • No attractive opportunities for bonds
  • Extreme volatility in real estate fund indices
  • The situation remains complex for Swiss stocks