STAGFLATION: A NEW CHALLENGE FOR THE EURO ZONE 2/3

01 Apr

STAGFLATION: A NEW CHALLENGE FOR THE EURO ZONE 2/3

The Eurozone Composite PMI plummeted to 50.5 in March, signaling that private sector expansion has virtually ground to a halt. While manufacturing reached a deceptive 45-month high due to temporary German acceleration, this momentum is undermined by lengthening delivery times and bottlenecks caused by the Strait of Hormuz disruption. This sudden loss of industrial velocity suggests that the region's brief recovery phase has already peaked.

Key Points

  • Q4 trend strongly called into question in Q1
  • Will the GDP forecast for H1 be revised to zero?
  • Leading indicators point to stagflation
  • Consumer confidence plummets
  • Inflation: Return of energy risks in 2026
  • New ECB policy: 3 rate hikes in 2026?
  • Rising bond yields and risk premiums
  • The oil crisis weighs on the euro against the dollar
  • The rate shock weighs on securitized real estate
  • European stocks react to possible stagflation