STAGFLATION RESHUFFLES THE DECKS FOR JAPANESE ASSETS 3/3

06 Mar

STAGFLATION RESHUFFLES THE DECKS FOR JAPANESE ASSETS 3/3

The Japanese fixed-income market is under intense pressure, with 10-year JGB yields stabilizing near 2.1% after significant volatility. This calm is fragile, as yields are now deeply correlated with inflationary fears triggered by the Middle East conflict. We anticipate yields will resume an upward trend toward 2% and beyond, as current coupons fail to offset capital erosion in an environment of rising prices and recessionary risks.

Key Points

  • A difficult recovery in Q4
  • A first quarter marked by tensions between resilience and external shocks
  • Positive leading indicators before the energy crisis
  • Further decline in consumer confidence likely
  • Probable and temporary rebound in inflation
  • The equation has become more complex for the BoJ
  • The specter of stagflation threatens the yield curve
  • Yen under energy shock and monetary deadlock
  • Stagflation risks threaten the Nikkei