Bearbull Global Investments

STAGFLATION RESHUFFLES THE DECKS FOR JAPANESE ASSETS 2/3

04 Mar

STAGFLATION RESHUFFLES THE DECKS FOR JAPANESE ASSETS 2/3

Posted by BearBull Group In Investment Insight 0 comment

Leading indicators through February 2026 signaled a strengthening recovery, with manufacturing at 53 and services at 53.8. While industrial production in January supported this resilient outlook, these surveys predated the Middle East escalation. The significant uncertainties from the current energy shock are not yet reflected and will likely weigh heavily on the March reporting cycle.

Key Points

  • A difficult recovery in Q4
  • A first quarter marked by tensions between resilience and external shocks
  • Positive leading indicators before the energy crisis
  • Further decline in consumer confidence likely
  • Probable and temporary rebound in inflation
  • The equation has become more complex for the BoJ
  • The specter of stagflation threatens the yield curve
  • Yen under energy shock and monetary deadlock
  • Stagflation risks threaten the Nikkei
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