2026 START VERY UNCERTAIN IN THE UNITED STATES 3/3

The US bond market has entered a phase of preventive adjustment, with 10-year yields stabilizing near 4.10%. While the real yield of 140 basis points remains attractive, capital gains must contend with a projected $1.8 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2025. This massive supply imposes a significant term premium that leaves the market structurally vulnerable to any inflationary rebound in early 2026.