MODERATE OUTLOOK FOR THE EUROZONE IN 2026 2/3

17 Dec

MODERATE OUTLOOK FOR THE EUROZONE IN 2026 2/3

As 2026 approaches, leading indicators suggest a gradual but sluggish recovery. While recession risks have likely been averted, there is no evidence of a clear acceleration. Economic signals remain "orange," reflecting a persistent sectoral dichotomy where resilient services prevent contraction but lack the industrial support needed for a robust expansion.

Key Points

  • Resilience in Q3 heralds a positive Q4 as well
  • Positive but fragile growth in 2026
  • Leading indicators point to a sluggish recovery
  • Household confidence remains defensive
  • Prices set to stabilize at the end of the year
  • No further rate cuts on the horizon for the ECB
  • The ECB’s pause reshuffles the cards on the interest rate market
  • Another complex situation for the euro
  • Securitized real estate remains undeniably attractive
  • The discount on European stock market indices is struggling to disappear