THE BOE WILL LOWER ITS KEY INTEREST RATES SOONER THAN EXPECTED 2/3

The latest S&P Global/CIPS PMI indices for November reveal a decisive shift in the UK's economic trajectory. The dynamic service-led growth observed in early 2025 has largely dissipated, replaced by a convergence toward stagnation. While the composite PMI remains marginally resilient, the services sector—the primary engine of the UK economy representing 80% of GDP—has stalled at a PMI of 50.5. This notable break in momentum suggests that post-election euphoria has been superseded by the cold reality of budgetary constraints and global headwinds, leaving the outlook for the fourth quarter hanging by a thread.