RETURN OF NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES 2/3

The reduced US customs duties (from 39% to 15%) is expected to be a significant catalyst for Swiss exports, unblocking delayed logistical flows and enabling the shipment of inventoried goods. This necessary inventory correction should allow GDP to rebound and potentially avoid a prolonged technical recession, though sectors reliant on global capital expenditure, like machinery, will continue to face headwinds. Our forecast anticipates an anemic Q4 growth rate, likely stabilizing between -0.1% and +0.3%.